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Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book
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2,565 posts in this topic

On 8/5/2020 at 4:42 AM, Conder101 said:

They always bring premiums no matter what gold prices are.  But the higher gold rises, especially if it rises quickly, the smaller the premium becomes.

That's because the premium tends to be sticky to both the upside AND downside.  If it rises and then stabilizes at the higher level (admittedly, it doesn't happen too often) the premium will expand with gold flat.

I believe in a few years folks will post here bragging that they bought an MS65 Saint common year for under $3,000 !!  xD

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On 8/5/2020 at 5:12 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

And, of course, the inverse is true for the AE silver dollars with a recent article devoted to just this phenomenon (higher premiums) as investors clamor to know why.  Coin shortage?  I doubt it. Probably has to do with that nefarious cabal one of our number alluded to.

Simple solution:  buy SLV the ETF as a hedge to lock in the price.  Same thing with GLD or IAU if you can't buy gold coins or bars for some reason.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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6 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Simple solution:  buy SLV the ETF as a hedge to lock in the price.  Same thing with GLD or IAU if you can't buy gold coins or bars for some reason.

Easy for you to say. I may have had to give up my rotary phone but I still have my old (yes, manual) typewriter.  I don't know why, but an old dinosaur like me cannot fathom the pleasure a whippersnapper may derive from abstractions like pixelated numbers and letters on a screen. While I may envy VKurtBs giant ME, I am stubbornly old-fashioned. How can an electronic trade compare to the thrill I got redeeming my old silver certificates for a bag of silver at an assay office on Wall Street? You understand.

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20 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

That's because the premium tends to be sticky to both the upside AND downside.  If it rises and then stabilizes at the higher level (admittedly, it doesn't happen too often) the premium will expand with gold flat.

I believe in a few years folks will post here bragging that they bought an MS65 Saint common year for under $3,000 !!  xD

I don't think I will be doing that but I can state with [shameful] confidence that every raw MS French rooster I bought only last year at a ridiculously low price, has risen way, way past melt value (a term I dislike intensely) as have your beloved double eagles -- and while I may consider selling them, I am not going to disperse my Set Registry compilation -- no matter how high gold goes, even if it surpasses the value of RichieRich2020s newfound treasure, and irrespective as to how VKurtB feels about them. What I may do is send them all back to France for placement in a museum if they're interested.  I was never in it for the money; I was in it for the hunt.  Note: any views as expressed herein above are valid for 37 hours.

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34 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Easy for you to say. I may have had to give up my rotary phone but I still have my old (yes, manual) typewriter.  I don't know why, but an old dinosaur like me cannot fathom the pleasure a whippersnapper may derive from abstractions like pixelated numbers and letters on a screen. While I may envy VKurtBs giant ME, I am stubbornly old-fashioned. How can an electronic trade compare to the thrill I got redeeming my old silver certificates for a bag of silver at an assay office on Wall Street? You understand.

I get it.  But if you have even a basic online brokerage account you can buy these ETFs pretty easily in most any account.

If your only reason to want to buy/sell is to move based on price and you don't want to sell your specific silver/gold coins/bars because replicating them down the line would be time consuming, buying/selling the ETFs is a good way to hedge.

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4 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I get it.  But if you have even a basic online brokerage account you can buy these ETFs pretty easily in most any account.

If your only reason to want to buy/sell is to move based on price and you don't want to sell your specific silver/gold coins/bars because replicating them down the line would be time consuming, buying/selling the ETFs is a good way to hedge.

Makes eminent good economic sense.  I am unable to offer a cogent argument against it. (Lemme find out someone out there is trying to turn a collector into an invest😊r.)

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11 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Makes eminent good economic sense.  I am unable to offer a cogent argument against it. (Lemme find out someone out there is trying to turn a collector into an invest😊r.)

The scenario described is speculating not investing.

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Oh-oh!  Much like Paulie in Goodfellas (1990) who readily admitted he knew nothing about the restaurant business, I know nothing about ETFs, BTUs -- or UFOs, for that matter. Mr. Goldfinger1969 (any relation to TekashiSixNine? Just kidding!) with all due respect, I have reached an age where engaging in speculative pursuits is not in my best interest.

Goldfinger1969:  Well excuse me, Roostermeister!

QA:  I know. I know. It was temporary insanity.

G1969:  Well, alright, I was only trying to be helpful.

QA:  I know you were and I appreciate your honesty.

Thanks for the reality check. RWB.

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On 8/7/2020 at 3:43 PM, RWB said:

The scenario described is speculating not investing.

No, if you want to buy some silver or gold....and there are production issues making it impossible to secure it at a reasonable price to spot bullion.....then buying GLD, IAU, or SLV is a good way to lock in the price.

This is NOT speculating, unless it's the speculation on the coins that you are referring to.  You are buying the coins (sometime)...and locking in now with the ETFs.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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On 8/7/2020 at 4:37 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Thanks for the reality check. RWB.

I'm not sure if RWB was talking about buying PM's via coins for gold and/or silver as the speculation.

But using ETFs to lock in the price is NOT speculating.  Buying gold or silver is a speculation somewhat as I don't consider it an investment akin to stocks or bonds or other financial investments.

If silver is $30/oz...and American Silver Eagles should cost $31 each.....but because of a shortage as folks pile in to silver and production issues at the Mint, ASE's sell for $35 each....you don't want to pay $35 for each ASE when they should cost about $31 and silver is $30.....so.....you buy SLV for the total amount of silver that you want.

If silver shoots up to $40/oz., you made $10/oz profit on each share of SLV.  When the premium on the ASEs comes back to $1, you buy the coins AND SELL the SLV ETF.

If silver falls to $20/oz., you LOSE $10/oz on each share of SLV, but you buy the coins when the premium falls to $21 a coin as demand slackens (premium should fall as price and demand fall).

Either way.....with a $10 rise or fall in silver.....you achieve your objective of buying ASEs at $31/coin and price movements don't affect you.  This is why this hedge is NOT a speculation. 

Buying the coins is another matter. xD

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12 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not sure if RWB was talking about buying PM's via coins for gold and/or silver as the speculation.

But using ETFs to lock in the price is NOT speculating.  Buying gold or silver is a speculation somewhat as I don't consider it an investment akin to stocks or bonds or other financial investments.

If silver is $30/oz...and American Silver Eagles should cost $31 each.....but because of a shortage as folks pile in to silver and production issues at the Mint, ASE's sell for $35 each....you don't want to pay $35 for each ASE when they should cost about $31 and silver is $30.....so.....you buy SLV for the total amount of silver that you want.

If silver shoots up to $40/oz., you made $10/oz profit on each share of SLV.  When the premium on the ASEs comes back to $1, you buy the coins AND SELL the SLV ETF.

If silver falls to $20/oz., you LOSE $10/oz on each share of SLV, but you buy the coins when the premium falls to $21 a coin as demand slackens (premium should fall as price and demand fall).

Either way.....with a $10 rise or fall in silver.....you achieve your objective of buying ASEs at $31/coin and price movements don't affect you.  This is why this hedge is NOT a speculation. 

Buying the coins is another matter. xD

Why would you say that? The premium over melt for ASE’s has nearly never been on the order of a dollar. $3 is close, at WHOLESALE. 

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On 8/11/2020 at 3:07 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If silver is $30/oz...and American Silver Eagles should cost $31 each

They would have to be at least $32 as the mint sells them to the distributor for spot + $2

 

20 hours ago, VKurtB said:

you don't want to pay $35 for each ASE when they should cost about $31 and silver is $30.....so.....you buy SLV for the total amount of silver that you want.

If silver shoots up to $40/oz., you made $10/oz profit on each share of SLV.  When the premium on the ASEs comes back to $1, you buy the coins AND SELL the SLV ETF.

But if the premium is now $1 the price would still be $41 per coin not the $31 you wanted to pay

 

20 hours ago, VKurtB said:

If silver falls to $20/oz., you LOSE $10/oz on each share of SLV, but you buy the coins when the premium falls to $21 a coin as demand slackens (premium should fall as price and demand fall).

Either way.....with a $10 rise or fall in silver.....you achieve your objective of buying ASEs at $31/coin and price movements don't affect you.  This is why this hedge is NOT a speculation. 

Now in this case you are able to but the coins for $21 instead of the $31, but you lost $10  on the SLV so it is the same as paying $31 for a coin that is now worth $21.  This is a hedge?

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You know you grabbed GoldFinger1969's quote from my quote, right? I mean I seriously doubt GoldFinger1969 and I agree on much at all.

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RE: "Now in this case you are able to but the coins for $21 instead of the $31, but you lost $10  on the SLV so it is the same as paying $31 for a coin that is now worth $21.  This is a hedge?"

No. It is a shrubbery. Ni?

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On 8/11/2020 at 3:34 PM, VKurtB said:

Why would you say that? The premium over melt for ASE’s has nearly never been on the order of a dollar. $3 is close, at WHOLESALE. 

I just used it as an example, Kurt.   I don't buy ASEs regularly so I don't know what a "normal" or "inflated" premium to spot silver is.

I'm just saying buy SLV (or GLD) is a good way to lock in the current price of a PM in a simple, cost-effective manner....that's all. xD

 

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6 hours ago, Conder101 said:

They would have to be at least $32 as the mint sells them to the distributor for spot + $2

 

But if the premium is now $1 the price would still be $41 per coin not the $31 you wanted to pay

 

Now in this case you are able to but the coins for $21 instead of the $31, but you lost $10  on the SLV so it is the same as paying $31 for a coin that is now worth $21.  This is a hedge?

(1)  Whatever the premium is...$1, $2, $5....I'm just talking about it expanding because of either a silver spike or a production problem at The Mint.  And using an ETF to lock-in and hedge.

(2)  Yes, but you made $10 a share on the ETF so the "net cost" of the coins is $31 or whatever is spot plus the normal premium.

(3)  Yes, that's a hedge....regardless of whether silver (or SLV) moves up $10/ounce.....you're locked in at $31/ounce or whatever the price was.

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3 hours ago, RWB said:

RE: "Now in this case you are able to but the coins for $21 instead of the $31, but you lost $10  on the SLV so it is the same as paying $31 for a coin that is now worth $21.  This is a hedge?"

No. It is a shrubbery. Ni?

If the buyer was going to buy COINS at $31 or $32 a coin....but the price (with silver at $30/oz).......was $35 or $37 or some outrageous number......this is a good hedge.  You locked in the metal at a price you wanted to buy the coins at.

If silver is $30/oz. and ASE's are $31 or $32 normally.....but instead they sell for $35-$37.....then buy the ETF (SLV) and don't buy the coins until the PREMIUM normalizes.  Whatever happens to the bulk of the price move in the coins (excluding the premium) will be reflected in the ETF. 

So again....you're hedged.

I guess we can tell who's the financial and ETF guy on this thread, huh ? :bigsmile:

 

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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[Aside:  This thread got off to a very good start and is still going strong some four months, 469 posts and 16 pages later.  While I am too old to invest, an activity that necessarily demands one's undivided attention, I appreciate the advice GoldFinger1969 has shared here with viewers. I also like the passion and enthusiasm he's shown for his favorite coin -- and Roger Burdette' book. Very lovely thread in all respects!]

Edited by Quintus Arrius
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4 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

[Aside:  This thread got off to a very good start and is still going strong some four months, 469 posts and 16 pages later.  While I am too old to invest, an activity that necessarily demands one's undivided attention, I appreciate the advice GoldFinger1969 has shared here with viewers. I also like the passion and enthusiasm he's shown for his favorite coin -- and Roger Burdette' book. Very lovely thread in all respects!]

Great thoughts Q....yes, a great thread, hopefully I can report back using the book to help me select some Saints down the line.xD

If gold continues to rise, and then steadies, it will be very interesting to see how Saints react price-wise.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

... it will be very interesting to see how Saints react price-wise.

Many folks, including dealers, look to price guides for help with discovery but the coins that don't come up in auctions much tend to get forgotten.

During times of chaos they can be quite misleading. Check out the 08-NM, 11-D & the 10-D in MS65

Also check out the 14-D & 14-S (cross reference with the Pop-report)

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/detail/st-gaudens-20/67/most-active

I don't have anything against NGC or their price guide, I just print off one and make little notes on it. (same can be done with NGC)

Edited by Cat Bath
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10 hours ago, VKurtB said:

You know you grabbed GoldFinger1969's quote from my quote, right? I mean I seriously doubt GoldFinger1969 and I agree on much at all.

Well, we can agree that Roger's book is THE BIBLE on Saints. (thumbsu

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53 minutes ago, Cat Bath said:

Many folks, including dealers, look to price guides for help with discovery but the coins that don't come up in auctions much tend to get forgotten.  During times of chaos they can be quite misleading. Check out the 08-NM, 11-D & the 10-D in MS65 Also check out the 14-D & 14-S (cross reference with the Pop-report) ttps://www.pcgs.com/prices/detail/st-gaudens-20/67/most-active I don't have anything against NGC or their price guide, I just print off one and make little notes on it. (same can be done with NGC)

I think the price guides dating back to the mid-1970's were spectacular in the book.  Seeing the TREND over multiple decades was more important to me than whether the recent quotes (up to 2015) were very close to FMV or just in the ballpark -- or sometimes not even near the off-ramp to the ball park. xD

I'll post back when I check the book and the Saint years you cited, but don't forget that the prices in the book I believe come from Heritage's own archives.  PCGS and NGC, as I understand it, will try and use actual sales from HA/Stacks/other online/etc....they may "massage" the final figures or not.  Do you throw out outliers that are high and/or low ?  There's alot that can go into determining a price, since no 2 coins are exactly alike, and as you stated, sometimes coins don't trade that often.

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On 8/7/2020 at 3:43 PM, RWB said:

The scenario described is speculating not investing.

+1,000,000

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15 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I just used it as an example, Kurt.   I don't buy ASEs regularly so I don't know what a "normal" or "inflated" premium to spot silver is.

I'm just saying buy SLV (or GLD) is a good way to lock in the current price of a PM in a simple, cost-effective manner....that's all. xD

 

It matters not. The cold hard truth is that the vast majority of precious metals investors/speculators get their teeth kicked in.

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10 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, we can agree that Roger's book is THE BIBLE on Saints. (thumbsu

Meh, probably not. I have quite a few disagreements with ol' Roger, particularly on YOUR favorite topic, the Switt/Langbord coins matter. Hint: Midge Rendell, the writer of the first 3rd circuit (3 judge panel) decision, got eviscerated by the en banc circuit.

Edited by VKurtB
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31 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

It matters not. The cold hard truth is that the vast majority of precious metals investors/speculators get their teeth kicked in.

I'm assuming this isn't a speculation, just someone who wants to hold silver or gold at the current prices.  That's all we're discussing....not whether it's going to turn out to be a good investment/speculation or not.

Since silver coins especially are detached from the price of silver via the premium and since that premium can be highly volatile at times, buying SLV is a good way to hedge.  Nothing more, nothing less.

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2 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm assuming this isn't a speculation, just someone who wants to hold silver or gold at the current prices.  That's all we're discussing....not whether it's going to turn out to be a good investment/speculation or not.

Since silver coins especially are detached from the price of silver via the premium and since that premium can be highly volatile at times, buying SLV is a good way to hedge.  Nothing more, nothing less.

True, IF you believe metals are a useful hedge. I do not. Precious metals always over-react, in BOTH directions.

Edited by VKurtB
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36 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

Meh, probably not. I have quite a few disagreements with ol' Roger, particularly on YOUR favorite topic, the Switt/Langbord coins matter. Hint: Midge Rendell, the writer of the first 3rd circuit (3 judge panel) decision, got eviscerated by the en banc circuit.

Yes, I am aware of that....but since the trial judge had pretty much determined who was going to win -- "Heads the government wins, Tails the Langbord's lose" -- the CAFRA decision was pretty much irrelevant, IMO.

I think it is pretty clear that personal and professional animus to dealers -- who were suddently in possession of coins worth 100x face value and equal to an entire year's salary at the Mint (or a good portion) -- explains the 1944 obsession in tracking down the 1933's.  That and being embarassed by having an entire bag (250 coins) of 1928's get swiped from right under their noses.xD

Regardless of that particular section (< 5 pages) and one's view on the Switt-Langbord 1933's.....I think the rest of the book is outstanding and especially the die and variety information was fascinating.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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Just now, GoldFinger1969 said:

Yes, I am aware of that....but since the trial judge had pretty much determined who was going to win -- "Heads the government wins, Tails the Langbord's lose" -- the CAFRA decision was pretty much irrelevant, IMO.

I think it is pretty clear that personal and professional animus to dealers -- who were suddently in possession of coins worth 100x face value and equal to an entire year's salary at the Mint (or a good portion) -- explains the 1944 obsession in tracking down the 1933's.  That and being embarassed by having an entire bag (250 coins) of 1928's get swiped from right under their noses.xD

I find 1944 and 1928 irrelevant. The 21st century case stands on its own merits. 

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