Does it seem like demand for new US Mint issues is waning? 0

[jtryka]

Recently I noticed that most of the low-mintage new issues by the mint haven't really done so well.  A few years ago, it seemed that any new issue with a mintage of 100,000 or less would sell out within 15 minutes of going on sale, but recently that hasn't been the case at all.  The last "sellout" was the Apollo 11 5-ounce silver dollar which had a household limit seemed to sell out within a few days, but 6 months later they were available again and you can buy them for the issue price with no limits.  This past week we had two limited edition items go on sale, the American Liberty silver medal with a mintage of 50,000 and a household limit of 1 per household was released yesterday and today is still available with the order limits lifted.  The 2018 reverse proof American innovation dollar had a mintage of 75,000 with an order limit of 5 was released on Wednesday and was still available yesterday (though I just checked and it's no longer available, at least for now).  The Pride of Two nations set was release on July 3, with a reverse proof silver eagle and mintage of 110,000 and it's still available.

Do you think this is a case of demand waning, or perhaps all the big dealers that used to rush in to buy out everything and then mark it up killed their golden goose?  Or maybe a combination of the two?

[World Colonial]

I don't believe the prior demand came from real collectors but mostly from speculator flippers.  None of the mintages you listed are anything but extremely common and I'd rate the likelihood as nil that anywhere near this number of actual hobbyists really want it. This equally applies to the 2014 gold Kennedy, First Spouse series and all low mintage modern commemoratives.  It's not like hardly any of these designs or themes are actually compelling.

I don't buy any US coins (last time I did was about 20 years ago) but I hold the same opinion for practically all 20th century to date US series for both circulation strikes and proofs.  It was one thing back in the 1960's and pre-internet (or maybe up to 1999) when this was all that most US collectors could buy but that's not true any more.  I hear these coins have mostly been losing value and given how incredibly common practically all are and the available alternatives today, I expect prices to fall a lot more as the marginal buyer chooses something else.

Lastly, the US Mint has issued far too much product and it's also generally viewed as inferior to NCLT from other countries such as Pandas, Libertads and Brittanias.  I presume that, outside of those who buy this stuff as a substitute for bullion, a noticeable percentage (if not most) of the collector base is of relatively modest means.  They almost certainly cannot afford to keep sets complete, assuming they want it.

[Conder101]

Part of the problem is and World Colonial has said, the mint has gone to the trough too many times.  The collector has gotten tired of ponying up his money again and again for "special" coins that are uninspiring, overpriced, and most of which then fall in value in the aftermarket.

[World Colonial]

5 hours ago, Conder101 said:

Part of the problem is and World Colonial has said, the mint has gone to the trough too many times.  The collector has gotten tired of ponying up his money again and again for "special" coins that are uninspiring, overpriced, and most of which then fall in value in the aftermarket.

I presume part of the reason for the US Mint's recent releases is to offset revenue loss from crashing sales of proof sets.  I know this has occurred in the last few decades but don't recall for others.

I don't know about anyone else, but I consider the coin examples used in the OP as gimmicks.  (The Liberty medal is a medal.)  A reverse proof is a novelty when issued in isolation but not interesting when offered repeatedly.  Same for different finishes such as satin.  A 5oz "coin" isn't a real coin but a bullion round and a mintage of 100,000 isn't remotely "low" especially with an issue price of $224.95.  In 2600 years of coin history prior to NCLT, a handful near this size (or larger) have been issued but at least it was a real coin, like the Spanish 50 reales or 100 escudos.

For commemoratives, it's also mediocre art work and themes mostly of dubious merit issued to satisfy some minor political constituency.  The 50th anniversary Apollo coin (1oz silver and maybe gold $5) is one of the few recent ones (as in the last few decades) which I think will have lasting appeal, though it's still to common to appreciate substantially.

In writing this post, I found the Coin Week article below.  Apparently, the author couldn't find a better reason to buy this coinage either other than future "flipping" opportunities.  Decades from now, most of this coinage is destined to be mostly forgotten, lost in obscurity buried in a sea of endlessly mediocre material.

https://coinweek.com/modern-coins/falling-commemorative-coin-mintages-why-it-happened-and-how-to-profit/

[thebeav]

As the mint continued to create new issues, they had to have hired more and more people. To keep these people employed, more new issues had to be created.To purchase everything they manufacture in any given year has to be a small fortune today. I think I computed the number 15 or so years ago and it was like 18 grand, give or take.

I think I stopped buying their stuff after the 1988 Olympic issues. I did great on the SoL stuff in'86. Many of my customers pre-sold their extra sets with me, excited to get a profit from some modern issue. Of course, the Constitution stuff didn't hold up just a short year later. 

[dave92029]

The Spot price of Silver is approx. $17, yet the USM prices the "S" version of the 2019 proof coins at approx. 3.5 x spot, so if a collector wants a graded version of this 2019 coin they will need to pay nearly 4.7 X the spot price for this modern coin. 

The Pride of Two Nations set contained two ounces of silver, $34 worth, and the USM priced the sets at $140, over 4.1 X the spot price.

Seems like the USM is pricing their sets at too high a premium. Look at eBay to see what a awful investment modern USM coins/ sets have been. Very difficult to recover the release price of USM modern coins and sets after several years of ownership. Many realize that buying from the USM is not very smart, and have stopped collecting the new offerings, even with the "special" mint marks, and fancy finishes.