interesting new article "beyond the hype"

[michael]

http://www.pinnacle-rarities.com/articles/beyondthehype.html

[nwcs]

I'm surprised to see them say red lincolns have reached a peak. Seems 1934 and earlier issues keep going up.

[michael]

well i think the gist of the article is that many series have really skyrocketed in value and that in the coin game many series go in cycles and that it is possible that the pre 1934 red lincolns might continue to rise but

 

there are other more scarcer undervalued series that might possibly be value buys as they have not seen much if any rise in value and are really scarce historical coins to begin with besides being extremely collectable

 

just suggestions and nothing set in stone so to speak

 

then you can take what information you like and leave the rest

[Oldtrader3]

I just bought a MS65, more common date, Seated Dime for a very reasonable price. IMHO, some Seated and Barber series coins are still very undervalued, given pops.

[CTcollector]

I would agree with Oldtrader. I have been purchasing original Gem Seated and Barber proofs at around 25% above where prices were 2-3 years ago. To me, this represents decent value due to relatively low pops and collectibility. As the Pinnalce article states, in some cases you can purchase condition census pieces for a small premium over type, that is if you are lucky enough to find them.

 

One word of caution I will throw out there is to avoid pieces that have been recently "pushed" into a higher holder as a result of gradeflation. Even in the case of a soft price for the grade, you will be paying double of where that coin was trading a few months ago.

 

I give Pinnacle some credit for pointing out some areas of saturation in the market place. Mike Printz wrote something similar regarding late date walkers a little while back.

[DonHeath]

It IS interesting to watch the market, but I wonder sometimes whether a dedicated Lincoln collector would switch to Peace dollars because Lincolns were hot.Maybe chasing the market with coins is like chasing the hot stock.

 

And this is a good thing for collectors interested in accumulating scarce coins at good values. just doesn't sound like a focused strategy. JMO

[whoopig01]

I believe that if you are doing it as a hobby and a collector, you have a budget you allow yourself for it. If the market goes up you naturally buy less coinage if you stick to the budget. You then also buy more coinage as market goes down. Using this relationship for a collector or hobbyist prevents you from being hurt as bad if you have to sell in times of market crisis. It is the same principal used for company based 401(k). You make a standard contribution every week no matter how the market is swinging. All in the prospect that the long term investment will turn a profit. Enough from me for now.

[michael]

 

"You say this is a manipulation. I disagree. One cannot manipulate if there are no buyers out there."

 

The question of "manipulation" (incidentally, a term we did not use in our article) might pertain to the nature of "demand". Is demand coming from an experienced and knowledgeable grass-roots base? Or is this increase in demand more a result of effective marketing and great salesmanship from a single source?

 

We hesitated to include high-grade Lincoln cents on our recommended sell list because although many issues have enjoyed some staggering price increases, most of the demand is still coming from experienced and savvy collectors. We'll even concede that Lincoln cents just might be the most popular series in all of numismatics! But its been our experience that at some point, even the most wealthy and knowledgeable collectors will cry “Uncle” and move to the sidelines – or perhaps even sell.

 

On the other hand, although we really like $2.50 Indians and have certainly handled more than our fair share of fabulous pieces over the years, we’ve seen a significant shift in the nature of demand over the past few years. Unlike dated Lincoln cents where we still get calls from collectors whenever we offer a special piece, we just can’t seem to generate much interest from our clientele these days when we post a neat $2.50 Indian.

 

Inevitably, most of these $2.50 Indians end up with the same dealer. Like any business, we’re grateful for ANY demand. He pays fair prices, pays fast and by all accounts, seems to be maintaining price levels in a responsible, healthy way. The only problem is that it makes us very nervous that soooo much of the market share for $2.50 Indians now funnels through a single entity.

 

"I haven't seen a run-up in pricing at all, regardless of the grade."

 

You might want to look at the Monthly Summary prices for a quick three-year comparison of $2.50 Indians. Keep in mind, that by March, 2002 the market for this series had already appreciated 10-25% off its lows.

 

A common-date,

1909 MS63: $870 (March, 2002) / $1,700 (March, 2005)

1909 MS65: $2,600 (March, 2002) / $7,200 (March, 2005)

A better-date,

1914-D MS63: $1,180 (March, 2002) / $1,800 (March, 2005)

1914-D MS65: $11,000 (March, 2002) / $23,500 (March, 2005)

The rare date,

1911-D MS63: $8,600 (March, 2002) / $18,800 (March, 2005)

1911-D MS65: $42,000 (March, 2002) / $70,000 (March, 2005)

 

 

-------------------------

Todd L. Imhof

Pinnacle Rarities, Inc.

www.pinnacle-rarities.com

[michael]

[WinstonWare]

404

[CoinLink-migration]

Page moved. Here is the current URL

http://www.pinnacle-rarities.com/Article...yondthehype.htm

[EZ_E]

Page moved. Here is the current URL

http://www.pinnacle-rarities.com/Article...yondthehype.htm

 

Beyond the Hype...

Which Areas Are Truly Hot and Which Are Not

 

The past two years have been exceptionally active for coin dealers. The market is strong and shows few signs of weakness. Special and exceptionally rare coins are bringing wonderful prices, and some areas of the market have experienced significant price appreciation. What you don't often read about, however, is that more areas than not haven't experienced price increases at all. And this is a good thing for collectors interested in accumulating scarce coins at good values. Below we discuss which type of material is appropriate to sell right now, and which is still ripe for the picking.

 

Their Bubbles May Burst

 

"Is this the right time to sell?" This is the million dollar question in a good market. We cost ourselves business by usually saying "not really." There are plenty of good reasons to sell right now, if you want to. Maybe you are in a profit position. Maybe you are finished with a collection and are eager to begin anew with a different series. Maybe you simply have other financial priorities or obligations. But overall, we like the potential of this market, although there are exceptions:

 

 

Pop Tops in 20th century series: These seem to be perfect auction candidates right now. Also, there is always a risk that more coins will be graded, causing these coins to lose value. For example, a 1938 10c PCGS PR68 sold in a February auction for $32,200. We sold one of the other four for less than a quarter of the price to a good client of ours four months ago. With PCGS having graded 177 PR67s, we think the chances are high some of these will eventually squeak into PR68 holders in the future. And, even if they don't, that price has seemingly little room for appreciation.

 

 

Mint State Red Lincolns: We remember selling a lot of finest known Lincoln cents in the early to mid 90s, and thinking how undervalued they were. Apparently, we were right! Prices on these have skyrocketed. And although this area remains extremely popular with collectors, we have to assume that many of them are becoming priced out of the series. In other words, we see little upside here.

 

 

Indian Head Quarter Eagles: This series has seen tremendous gains in the past five years due to a superbly managed promotion. If you bought nice Indian Head quarter eagles a few years back and can make a profit, we would suggest selling into a market that seems fully valued to us.

Overlooked and Undervalued

 

Lots of coins really haven't seen much, if any, price increase: Capped Bust, Seated, and Barber coinage, Proof Trade Dollars, Silver Commemoratives...the list goes on. Below are some areas which we believe currently present the best value:

 

 

Matte Proof Lincoln Cents and Buffalo Nickels: The matte proofs (1909-1916 for the Cents and 1913-1916 for the Buffaloes) have been overshadowed recently by popularity in the 1936-1942 Proof issues. When compared with business strikes, prices on the Matte Proof Lincolns seem even more ridiculously cheap.

 

 

Most Nickel Coinage: Business strike and Proof Three Cent Nickels and Shield Nickels, as well as Proof Liberty Nickels all offer outstanding value right now.

 

 

Peace Dollars: The Morgan series caught fire and then burnt out last year. Peace Dollars have remained cool, and we love the opportunity here.

 

 

No Motto Liberty Seated Dimes, Quarters and Half Dollars: Did you know that for less than $5,000 you can buy numerous dates in these series that are close to or actually in the Condition Census? We highly recommend MS63 to MS65 Seated coinage with nice original color and surfaces. We especially like the scarcer New Orleans issues.

 

 

Three Dollar Gold Pieces: We refer to these enigmatic issues as the "rare date gold coin for people who don't like rare date gold coins." They have a great story, low mintage figures and are extremely collectible. The issues we like best are the Civil War dates from 1861 to 1865 and the issues that have mintage figures of 2,000 and below.

 

 

New Orleans Gold: Unlike Charlotte and Dahlonega coinage, the gold produced at the New Orleans mint was used in commerce and, as a result, very little has survived in high grades. And unlike Charlotte or Dahlonega gold, not as many New Orleans pieces have been "dipped and stripped." We like high quality quarter eagles and No Motto half and eagles from this mint

 

 

Indian Eagles: This is one of the most attractively designed of all United States gold issues. If you can find the better dates with a minimum of marks and abrasions, they should perform well over the long haul.

So although it is easier to describe the whole market as "red hot," all rare coins do not perform in unison. This is a positive situation for the shrewd collector willing to focus their attention on out of favor issues. For more detailed information on any of the above, please give us a call at 800-724-7642.

 

 

© Copyright 2005, Pinnacle Rarities, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Zoins]

I believe that if you are doing it as a hobby and a collector, you have a budget you allow yourself for it. If the market goes up you naturally buy less coinage if you stick to the budget. You then also buy more coinage as market goes down. Using this relationship for a collector or hobbyist prevents you from being hurt as bad if you have to sell in times of market crisis. It is the same principal used for company based 401(k). You make a standard contribution every week no matter how the market is swinging. All in the prospect that the long term investment will turn a profit. Enough from me for now.

This is called "dollar cost averaging" however it works with investing because you can invest arbitrary amounts of money at any given time so you can easily set up an account to invest the same amount of money every month regardless of the mutual fund's net asset value.

 

This may or may not work with coins because the coins you are interested in may not always be for sale and you have to buy coins in discrete units. If you are looking for coins that rarely come up for sale you may be able to set aside funds into a special account every month and then when a coin you really want comes up you can bid strong on it. Of course, this strategy requires some self-discipline to not drain your funds every month on coins that may not fit your collecting goals.

[World Colonial]

I do not collect US coins but if I did, I would be more interested in some of the items below. I do not have enough money to buy many of them , but they still seem like relative bargains given their current prices and scarcity.

 

Do you have any opinion on these coins?

 

Cameo proof Indian Head Cents

Cameo proof two cent

Cameo proof 1936-1942

Liberty Seated proofs pre-1858 (especially dimes and quarters)

Proof Classic Head Half Cents

High grade colonials (EF and up depending upon the issue)

1883 proof Hawaii issues (mintage = 26)

1893 proof Isabelle Quarter (mintage = 103)

 

In general, I do not understand why cameo proofs before 1936 generally sell for such low premiums to regular proofs and why a cameo in one grade frequently sells for less than a non-cameo one grade higher. Even with coins that are both nice, the difference in eye appeal on cameos is striking.

[EZ_E]

WC, every coin you mentioned are excellent coins that have nowhere to go but up as long as they are not problematic.

 

In general, I do not understand why cameo proofs before 1936 generally sell for such low premiums to regular proofs and why a cameo in one grade frequently sells for less than a non-cameo one grade higher. Even with coins that are both nice, the difference in eye appeal on cameos is striking.

 

I agree but I am glad that it is not true at the moment since I will always prefer/choose a cameo over a non cameo. Just look at my type set registry and you will see a large percentage of my proofs are cameos.