Name Some Over Valued Coin's...repost from across the street

[SilverDollarMan]

Name Some Over Valued Coin's

I was wondering, w/ the overwhelming prices some of these coins fetching, (ie...2005 Nicks), what coin(s) do you believe will take the plummet? And how soon? TIA

[gmarguli]

Overvalued from a historical perspective or recent changes? Personally, I feel the 50-D 5c is still overpriced. Way too many in BU condition for it to command the premium it does.

 

The common date CC Morgans are too high considering their availability.

 

Common date Morgan & Peace dollars in MS63-MS66 have moved up too much compared to their availability.

 

Many recent PF sets are overpriced.

 

Any POS "special" set coming out of the mint the past few years is overpriced (i.e. the Buffalo dollar set with a cow testicle sack). The Buffalo $ is also overpriced.

 

Many of the "rare" modern commems. Sure they have low mintages, but that is because they are ugly and few people wish to own them.

 

Any FBL Franklin which only has 3 bell lines. Any FS Jefferson which only has 5 steps. Any FT Roosevelt that is trading for more than a few percent over a non-FT example.

[BankNote1]

High grade Buffalo nickels have gotten just silly, IMO...

[TomB]

In no particular order; low grade '16-D dimes and '09-S VDB cents, any TPG overgraded coin, pop-top coins from the last five years, modern commems supported by hype, Capped Bust halves that are AU58 but reside in MS64 holders, coins with little or no eye appeal and all other coins that are truly AU yet are listed as MS.

[rexcat]

I myself feel that one of the most over priced coins is the proof 1995-W Silver American Eagle.

Over three grand for a bullion coin?

 

I guess some one could say a mintage of 30,125 can be considered "rare" for a bullion coin....

 

Who cares?

 

Think of how many 100+ year old proof coins you can get for under $3000 with mintages under 10,000 or even 1000.

 

Maybe buy coin with about the same money people are putting out for that 1995-W?

Like a PF64 Morgan Dollar; with a total mintage 23,482 for all years, is that rare enough? And I'll bet almost every one of the 1995-W Eagles are still around also, looking just like new, compared to a much smaller percentage of proof Morgan Dollars that have survived at PF64 and higher.

 

When will these prices on coins like 1995-W SAE come down?

 

I think when people with too much money and too little numismatic knowledge stop buying coins.

[SilverDollarMan]

Man, thx lot people. I love a variety of thoughts. Anyone else?

I was bidding on a 50d, hehe u saved me $$$$$.

Also, I just bought one of the "High Grade" Buff's...Indian Head. Oh well.

[cpm9ball]

I myself feel that one of the most over priced coins is the proof 1995-W Silver American Eagle.

Over three grand for a bullion coin?

 

I guess some one could say a mintage of 30,125 can be considered "rare" for a bullion coin....

 

Who cares?

 

Think of how many 100+ year old proof coins you can get for under $3000 with mintages under 10,000 or even 1000.

 

Maybe buy coin with about the same money people are putting out for that 1995-W?

Like a PF64 Morgan Dollar; with a total mintage 23,482 for all years, is that rare enough? And I'll bet almost every one of the 1995-W Eagles are still around also, looking just like new, compared to a much smaller percentage of proof Morgan Dollars that have survived at PF64 and higher.

 

When will these prices on coins like 1995-W SAE come down?

 

I think when people with too much money and too little numismatic knowledge stop buying coins.

 

Yeah, the '95W SAE was another one of the US Mint's "unfair trade practices" . Unless you were a gold collector, too, the only way you could have obtained it at a reasonable price was by purchasing the '95 Gold Set. Many of the SAE collectors were unaware of this until it was too late.

 

Manipulation is nothing new for the government. We were taken off the gold standard in 1933; the gov't. warns everyone that possessing gold coins is illegal and they must return them. All that were redeemed were destroyed except one! Fortunately, some smart people put hoards of them into foreign banks where they could not be touched by the gov't. What do you think would be the market value of many of these coins, today, if so many had not been "stashed" in foreign banks?

 

40 odd years later, the Hunt Brothers were prosecuted for manipulating the silver market. I guess it would have been okay if they were acting on behalf of the gov't, but they weren't. (It's not nice to fool Mother Nature!") Adding salt to the wound of the Hunt Bros. fiasco, the US gov't pulls off their biggest numismatic coup. 69 years after destroying so many gold coins, the gov't. decides to sell the only 1933 $20 Saint-Gaudens in existence for $7,590,000.00. Overpriced?..........Probably!..........Manipulation?...........Definitely!

 

Please don't misunderstand.............I love our country.......... I JUST HATE POLITICIANS!!!!!!!!!

 

Chris

[cladking]

The '95-W is an easy coin to pick on since it stands out like a sore thumb. Among the many moderns whose price doesn't begin to reflect the rarity here is a coin that actually brings more than a comparably rare classic.

 

Several things can be meant when one says a coin is overpriced: He might mean that the demand will fall or that the current demand is unwarranted. He may mean that the supply is too high to sustain the price or that trends will push the price lower. He may mean that the coin is being bought by speculators creating artificial demand or it is in the middle of a fad which will eventually reverse.

 

There have been times in the past that recent issues were of more value than older issues. This was caused by a combination of mny factors the most important of which was a huge and continuing increase in the hobby base. In the mid '60's many people came to believe that there was not a sufficient number of older coins that had been saved to supply the growing market. Many millions of newbies were scouring circulation seeking coins to fill their albums and not finding them. It was simply a case of too many collectors chasing too few coins. The logical assumption was that as these kids became wealthier and more sophisticated collectors they'd want to upgrade and complete their collections and there was already stress on even the more common BU rolls from ten or twenty years earlier. This touched off a slow moving buying binge and a frenzy to stash new coin which could be acquired at or near face value. Unsurprisingly this market collapsed and the disappearance of "good" coins from circulation caused most of the newbies to leave the hobby. (of course there was a demographic causation as well).

 

People quit collecting or saving new coin and even the speculators had been left with a bad taste in their mouths so also quit bothering with new coin which was now debased as well.

 

Along comes 1995. This was the lowest year in coin collecting. Everyone was totally demoralized by the low prices for collector coins. Oh sure, the high end of the market had stabilized at lower levels and a few coins were actually increasing but the dirth of beginning and intermediate collectors was taking a huge toll on the less valuable coins. There was activity in moderns but even here it was more a repositioning and the pioneers still discovering the rarities among the multi billion mintages which were driving the market. Growth was continuous but very nominal. You couldn't give away really great coins like '24-D cents in VF. Even the key date coins had no demand unless they had high prices and then would usually have to be discounted to move.

 

Into this enviroment the '95-W was released. It was intended to goose a dying market and to limit sales it was placed in a very high priced set. If memory serves Phillip Diehl even wrote letters to the editor telling detractors that they could sell the rest of the set and the net cost of the silver coin wouldn't be so high. The coin was immediately very popular but thousands refused to buy it because they felt they were being gouged by the mint. There was huge potential demand and a very well distributed coin since most of even the biggest players bought only a few sets.

 

In the intervening years much has changed. The hobby started to come roaring back in 1996. Much of this growth was in the modern area so it was invisable to many hobby participants. This continued until all coins became affected by '98 and the bull market got going in '01. There is a whole new collector base saving coins from circulation. These coins are the richest they've been in many generations. The coins were minted and virtually the entire number went straight into circulation to be further ignored and worn out. Even today this richness is present in the circulating coinage as the new collectors are still learning to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

So where does this leave the '95-W. There are probably numerous small hordes being held as speculation but the demand just continues to increase. There are many new collectors and many of the detractors from a decade ago who still want the coin for their collection. Some oldtimers want to get into moderns but draw the line at buying clad or junk and at least want scarcity and good silver. All this activity "unnaturally" pushes up the demand for the coin and there are few seller. Hence the high price.

 

I'm not saying that the coin isn't overpriced. Yes, it is overpriced compared to many old classics and vastly overpriced compared to many moderns but that doesn't mean the price will come down or even stop going up. Buying any coin for speculation is risky, and this one moreso than most, but it's unlikely that this is what has pushed the price so high.

 

It is also instructive that a coin can reach suchs heights with such a large mintage. This gives you an idea how large the modern segment of the hobby has gotten.

[Hoot]

Fantastic synopsis, cladking!

 

On another note, I think the 37-D 3-legged buffalo is vastly overpriced in grades of MS62 and less. The coin has doubled in price for AU53-MS62 and tripled in price for VF and XF coins in the last four years. I also think the 18/7 variety is overpriced across the board. You can buy a nice proof 65 1913 T2 for as much as you'll pay for a G08 18/7 that looks like . Other overpriced pieces in that series include the minor varieties, such as the 38-D/D and 38-D/S, especially in MS67. Nutty. Lots of buffalo nickel collectors. Many of the coins in the series are underpriced comparing one issue to another. Key dates get entirely too much attention and the rest are poorly understood for their rarity and availability. Also, there is WAY too much slab bias among buffalo nickels. Boils down to ignorance.

 

Hoot

[chinook]

Matte proof Lincoln cents

 

Please do not buy these coins. They are vastly overpriced and overhyped. They tone terribly and look like [#@$%!!!].

[Oldtrader3]

All of the U.S. AU gold coins that are in MS62 TPG holders. I have seen a lot of this stuff coming on the market lately, from both major services. I think that these coins have nowhere to go but down in value. Particularly those that do not have eye appeal.

[gmarguli]

Any coin being shopped by a Wannabe Dealer™.

 

[Hoot]

Any coin being shopped by a Wannabe Dealer™.

 

 

Any coin in the hands of a Wannabe™ darkside dealer.

 

Hoot

[gmarguli]

Any coin being shopped by a Wannabe Dealer™.

 

 

Any coin in the hands of a Wannabe™ darkside dealer.

 

Hoot

 

[michael]

http://www.pinnacle-rarities.com/articles/beyondthehype.html

 

[midwest]

All MS70 modern coins. People they are not prfectttt !!!!!!!

They are overpriced coins that will drop in value when the people realized they can buy a MS69 and not realized the difference.

 

Did I mention ACG coins they will drop in value

 

 

Again people stop bying MS70 coins

 

[Elcontador]

Most PF CAM designated Barber & Late Seated coins. DCAM for some dates, though, may be another story..

[SilverDollarMan]

The '95-W is an easy coin to pick on since it stands out like a sore thumb. Among the many moderns whose price doesn't begin to reflect the rarity here is a coin that actually brings more than a comparably rare classic.

 

Several things can be meant when one says a coin is overpriced: He might mean that the demand will fall or that the current demand is unwarranted. He may mean that the supply is too high to sustain the price or that trends will push the price lower. He may mean that the coin is being bought by speculators creating artificial demand or it is in the middle of a fad which will eventually reverse.

 

There have been times in the past that recent issues were of more value than older issues. This was caused by a combination of mny factors the most important of which was a huge and continuing increase in the hobby base. In the mid '60's many people came to believe that there was not a sufficient number of older coins that had been saved to supply the growing market. Many millions of newbies were scouring circulation seeking coins to fill their albums and not finding them. It was simply a case of too many collectors chasing too few coins. The logical assumption was that as these kids became wealthier and more sophisticated collectors they'd want to upgrade and complete their collections and there was already stress on even the more common BU rolls from ten or twenty years earlier. This touched off a slow moving buying binge and a frenzy to stash new coin which could be acquired at or near face value. Unsurprisingly this market collapsed and the disappearance of "good" coins from circulation caused most of the newbies to leave the hobby. (of course there was a demographic causation as well).

 

People quit collecting or saving new coin and even the speculators had been left with a bad taste in their mouths so also quit bothering with new coin which was now debased as well.

 

Along comes 1995. This was the lowest year in coin collecting. Everyone was totally demoralized by the low prices for collector coins. Oh sure, the high end of the market had stabilized at lower levels and a few coins were actually increasing but the dirth of beginning and intermediate collectors was taking a huge toll on the less valuable coins. There was activity in moderns but even here it was more a repositioning and the pioneers still discovering the rarities among the multi billion mintages which were driving the market. Growth was continuous but very nominal. You couldn't give away really great coins like '24-D cents in VF. Even the key date coins had no demand unless they had high prices and then would usually have to be discounted to move.

 

Into this enviroment the '95-W was released. It was intended to goose a dying market and to limit sales it was placed in a very high priced set. If memory serves Phillip Diehl even wrote letters to the editor telling detractors that they could sell the rest of the set and the net cost of the silver coin wouldn't be so high. The coin was immediately very popular but thousands refused to buy it because they felt they were being gouged by the mint. There was huge potential demand and a very well distributed coin since most of even the biggest players bought only a few sets.

 

In the intervening years much has changed. The hobby started to come roaring back in 1996. Much of this growth was in the modern area so it was invisable to many hobby participants. This continued until all coins became affected by '98 and the bull market got going in '01. There is a whole new collector base saving coins from circulation. These coins are the richest they've been in many generations. The coins were minted and virtually the entire number went straight into circulation to be further ignored and worn out. Even today this richness is present in the circulating coinage as the new collectors are still learning to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

So where does this leave the '95-W. There are probably numerous small hordes being held as speculation but the demand just continues to increase. There are many new collectors and many of the detractors from a decade ago who still want the coin for their collection. Some oldtimers want to get into moderns but draw the line at buying clad or junk and at least want scarcity and good silver. All this activity "unnaturally" pushes up the demand for the coin and there are few seller. Hence the high price.

 

I'm not saying that the coin isn't overpriced. Yes, it is overpriced compared to many old classics and vastly overpriced compared to many moderns but that doesn't mean the price will come down or even stop going up. Buying any coin for speculation is risky, and this one moreso than most, but it's unlikely that this is what has pushed the price so high.

 

It is also instructive that a coin can reach suchs heights with such a large mintage. This gives you an idea how large the modern segment of the hobby has gotten.

 

Excellent reply, CladKing. Thx 4 the time!

Thx 2 EVERYONE!

[Merc]

Elcontador, Proof CAM barbers are overpriced? No way. They all have low mintages in the 500-700 range. The V-nickels and Indian head cents are much more comon at 3000-4000 or so for each date. Then even fewer Barbers have a Cam or Dcam. Only the ones struck early in the year were cam. At the FUN show 2 years ago, a dealer had a full collection of Barber halves on display. None were for sale. All were PF65 and PF66 but only 3 were CAM.

 

In my opinion, the most overpriced coins are the most recent quarter proof sets. The worst in the 1999 silver quarter set. The mintage is about 800,000. The supply is just to high to support the price for long.

[Elcontador]

Au contraire Merc. Forget mintages. Many of these coins today would qualify for the CAM designation. Ie., if, say you have 545 1908 PF quarters, and half of them would qualify for the CAM designation, the designation is worthless. I wouldn't pay five cents more for a Barber PF designated as CAM. DCAM, OTOH, you can be looking at some serious $ to get one of them.

 

They didn't start designating these coins as CAM such until a few years ago. What has been happening is that some dealers have gotten together and decided to hype these coins to a naive public. Grading services love these designations, because they result in more submissions.

 

Late date Seated and Barber PF coins are now the "flavor of the month." All of the majors are hyping them. They have been submitted and resubmitted so many times, that not surprisingly, some of them have been upgraded.

 

It's a little off topic, but if you don't want to get screwed in numismatics, see where the 'herd' is going and run in the opposite direction.