"Doom & Gloom" Collectors. Do They Have an Agenda?

[braddick]

I've read, on occasion, Dealers pump up the hobby by talking of a white hot, sizzling market. This comes usually after a large show. I've never really known if they're to be taken seriously or not, but it is usually an interesting read and admittingly, makes me feel pumped up and excited about the hobby..

 

Now, on the other hand, if a collector speaks of a downturn using his own observations (possibly), how much credibility should these "market reports" be given?

Do you find yourself shifting collecting interests due to them? And, as I take the "nuclear reports", do you read them with interest and react only emotionally? Or do you read them, take them with a grain of salt, and simply move on?

[truthteller]

Interesting post. Experience is the teacher. Many coin dealers and well as marketmakers reported a continuing hot market, just before Central States show 1981, and a fantastic investor driven market, just before Long Beach 1989. The ones in the know purported these markets as hot, just before the collapse, in time for them to rid themselves of inventory. Those who were not "in the know" lost it all, many closing up shop, only to return when there was another bull market. Those who have a financial interest in promoting coins should be critiqued carefully. Those who have an arms length interest in the marketplace, should be given more credence. Of course, 80% will believe what they want and buy on the upswing, only to sell at a loss when they NEED the money. Meanwhile 20% of the collectors might make a profit and are astute enough to sell INTO a rising market, not on the way down. But, in the long run, if you collect for fun, then, who cares?

 

 

 

TRUTH

[michael]

Interesting post. Experience is the teacher. Many coin dealers and well as marketmakers reported a continuing hot market, just before Central States show 1981, and a fantastic investor driven market, just before Long Beach 1989. The ones in the know purported these markets as hot, just before the collapse, in time for them to rid themselves of inventory. Those who were not "in the know" lost it all, many closing up shop, only to return when there was another bull market. Those who have a financial interest in promoting coins should be critiqued carefully. Those who have an arms length interest in the marketplace, should be given more credence. Of course, 80% will believe what they want and buy on the upswing, only to sell at a loss when they NEED the money. Meanwhile 20% of the collectors might make a profit and are astute enough to sell INTO a rising market, not on the way down. But, in the long run, if you collect for fun, then, who cares?

 

 

 

TRUTH

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

I figure that anyone who tries to tell lil ole me what lies in the future has an agenda. Otherwise why would they waste their breath telling someone like me who really does not care. Whether it's coins, stocks or whatever. I figure the ones that know, quietly do and the rest are just hot air.

[chinook]

I find myself agreeing with Charlie on this.

[lclugza]

I would be more likely to believe a "doom and gloom" collector than a "white hot market" greedy coin dealer. In recent months where a few "hyped" key dates, CC dollars, etc. have doubled or tripled while most coins have gone nowhere, I would be fearful of a crash. 1882-84 CC dollars should not be going for $200+ apiece in low MS, they are just too common (someone must be hyping them as an "investment," hence the price rise).

[truthteller]

" 1882-84 CC dollars should not be going for $200+ apiece in low MS, they are just too common "

 

 

Yes, I agree. If one were to stand back and say, "these prices just don't make sense", then you know something is funny. In early 1989, I said to myself, "these prices just don't make sense". What's scarey now is the "trading funds". They stop trading, then what happens?

 

 

TRUTH

[RGT]

I don't collect Morgans, but a few years back I picked up an 1884-CC NGC MS64 Morgan just because I wanted a CC coin. I paid about $90 for it. I recently realized the levels these have jumped to and decided it was time to sell. I put it on ebay a few weeks back and it sold for $227.50. I liked it $90 worth, but not $200 worth.

 

On a similar note, I won an NGC MS64 Half Dime a couple of years ago on ebay for something in the neighborhood of $250. The seller was the daughter of a collector who had recently passed. She didn't know much about coins, but she had the receipt from when he purchased it and she sent it to me along with the coin. I beleive the date was Nov, 1989 and the price was $2200.

[nwcs]

All I know is that if you follow the "market" you'll be sunk. Better to only spend what you can afford to lose and be consistent and smart about what you're spending your money on.

[James_OldeTowne]

The way I look at it, whether the pronouncements are "doom and gloom" or "white hot sizzle", if the predictions are measured in terms of "profit", "dollars", or anything else related to greed (money), then I ignore it. I'm much more motivated by discussions that revolve around coins than business!

 

James