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PCGS says the market has topped out. Kinda.

17 posts in this topic

It is very informative but as far as I can tell, it is all pretty much meaningless as it's based on speculation. Everything the population at large regularly purchases could be graphed out like this and it may or may not be relative to a trend for future sales or prices.


As a true barometer of the market, I would suggest following auction houses (Heritage, Teletrade, Bowers/Merena, etc.) quantity and prices of specific type sales of ones interest. This would be a better measure of the market IMO.

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It is tax time and the end of FUN, Baltimore, et cetra. The market is probaby just correcting for temporary slower inventory movement. Coins that are scarce and high condition are still hot! The series reverses so far are pretty small compared to the gains.


As they say on Wall Street, sell on good news buy on bad news. IMHO, I do not think that PCGS or HRH have called a market yet. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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I don't think it's topped out but I think it's awfully close. I'm basically not going to be buying anything for the rest of the year likely. Maybe longer. I have 30 coins and I may be selling 5 of them. smile.gif

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I have to echo what Greg said. The "Coin Universe Price Guide" is the height of absurdity. I actually have had people walk up to me at coin shows with a screen print of part of the guide, and try to sell me coins based on such nonsense. It is a disservice to the community to provide such a "guide" that is generally not based on reality.


To be fair, "Trends" tends to be out of whack (too high) on most coins as well, but the "CU" guide really stretches the limits of sanity.


To veer back on topic, I would tend to agree that the market is leveling off, and in fact, I foresee opportunies in the next couple of months.



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The biggest flaw in the reasoning is using the CU3000 index. Who uses it or takes it seriously.


Greg, this is true, however it is not so much the prices in the quide. The key is consistancy. The PCGS guide has been consistant in its prices of the past 10 years. The charts merely show a decline in the index no matter how flawed. The chart mirrors the markets over the past 10 years no matter how absurd the PCGS prices may be. This marks the first moving average crossing in the last 3 years.

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personally myself for what i see just based on my experience and what i likes in the market


the coins as stated below are really esoteric and have not moved at alot in the current market they are uncommon low pop with the pops not changing by much if at all and some have gone down 893whatthe.gif and since they have not gone up in value by much if anything some have gone down 893whatthe.gif


in the last few years they have incredible beauty and they still have amazing potential with little to no downside




this is the key a collectors perspective


here goes the list as per the above


wildly toned vibrant lusterous choice to gem isabellas


wildly toned vibrant and/or strongly cameoed-if proof or prooflike choice to gem to superb gem unc and proof


seated dimes,


double dimes,


fish scales,


seated quarters


seated halves,


seated dollars




two cent pieces,


indian cents,


three cent nicks,


lib nicks,


half cents,


pre 1828 capped bust dimes


capped bust half dimes


barber quarters-halves-dimes


gem red matte proof lincoln cents especially so the 1909-p


wildly colored gem proof 36-42 lincoln cents



wildly colored gem proof satin 36 buffs a unique one year type coin


thumbsup2.gifsuperb gem mintstate early s mint franklins wildly toned thumbsup2.gif


gem biz strike type 3 gold dollars with wild color


civil war era 1861-65 choice to gem proof cameo gold



ms64 ms63 ms65 ngc/pcgs generic saints


vf to xf to au to choice to gem biz strike colonial coins more than likely would be mass cents and half cents in the choice to gem category



the above are my experiences and opinions others might beg to differ as such

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I agree with James and Greg. Coin Universe Price Guide = sleeping.gif


BTW, nice job Michael!



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