What is going on with the Type market?

[Prethen]

I realize that coins with killer eye-appeal, truly rare, semi-key, key, and 69/70 stuff is going for stronger and stronger money, but what the heck is going on with the Type market?

 

In my myopic view of the market, when viewing current price lists and dealers' inventories, it appears that Type coins might actually be softening rather than strengthening with the supposedly growing collector base. Yes, collectors first start off in moderns, but where's all the action in the mid-grade circulated (VF+) Type coins? I've seen some relatively nice stuff in Seated material (not dollars though, can't find many of those), Large Cents, and even halfway decent 2-cent material going for around wholesale to the public. To be honest, I'm afraid to even look at eBay because those prices are likely even lower than what I've been seeing because those auctions tend to go to the bottom feeders (but not always). To add salt to these "wounds", in large part, most type series prices have barely budged in the past few years or so.

 

I keep hearing that dealers' inventories are "tight" and that there's no material. Yet, funny enough, when I do see material, I don't see the pricing pressure. Is there any pricing pressure on circulated 19th century type coins? Are they really so common that there's so much supply to cover the puny demand? I've often wondered at the true surviving numbers of some of the most common Seated stuff, along with 3CN and 2-centers and it boggles the mind that there really is still a bunch of supply out there....or is it just a virtually non-existent demand? What makes it more interesting is that the surviving number of non-problem coins and non-harshly cleaned coins is probably much smaller than most would believe.

 

I'm curious as to your thoughts on this, even if it's an area you don't care about, you might have some insight based on recent personal experience. Modern [#@$%!!!] is doing gangbusters (apparently) but what's happening with the circulated 19th century stuff? Old hat? Not enough people care any more? They'd rather buy it for melt or less?

 

Bruce

[TomB]

I don't view the situation, as you describe it, as being a negative. Rather, I view this as a lucky break in a fickle market since I can still occassionally buy the attractive type coin without having to clear out my bank account.

 

As you mention, original type material is much tougher than most folks realize. However, it also appears that most folks don't care to buy original coins. This is not a slam on anyone, but have you ever noticed how many dipped type coins are in the Dansco type albums that so many folks on the PCGS boards display? Those coins hurt my eyes, yet they are the ones that generally garner the most lavish praise from many members.

 

I believe that the circulated price structure is held down by these dogs, just as the price structure for classic commems is held down by the enormous numbers of overgraded pieces in TPG holders. In both cases, the original and attractive coins should be worth considerably more, and are typically sold for much more to knowledgeable numismatists.

 

The tight type market, in my opinion, exists for these problem-free pieces and for attractive, original MS pieces. It does not exist for damaged circulated pieces or overdipped MS pieces, and that affects the overall price structure.

[michael]

 

I don't view the situation, as you describe it, as being a negative. Rather, I view this as a lucky break in a fickle market since I can still occassionally buy the attractive type coin without having to clear out my bank account.(thumbs up

 

 

As you mention, original type material is much tougher than most folks realize. However, it also appears that most folks don't care to buy original coins. This is not a slam on anyone, but have you ever noticed how many dipped type coins are in the Dansco type albums that so many folks on the PCGS boards display? Those coins hurt my eyes, yet they are the ones that generally garner the most lavish praise from many members.

 

 

 

 

I believe that the circulated price structure is held down by these dogs, just as the price structure for classic commems is held down by the enormous numbers of overgraded pieces in TPG holders. In both cases, the original and attractive coins should be worth considerably more, and are typically sold for much more to knowledgeable numismatists.

 

 

unbelieveable great answer the best i have ever heard as per the above

 

and last but not least

 

The tight type market, in my opinion, exists for these problem-free pieces and for attractive, original MS pieces. It does not exist for damaged circulated pieces or overdipped MS pieces, and that affects the overall price structure.

 

 

[ClassicsRule-migration]

There has been action in the mid-grade type market, but it's been aimed at very rare coins (early CC seated coinage, for example), or at condition rarities (coins with very few AUs and uncs).

 

F/VF seated coinage has been OK market-wise for tougher dates for but common coins, there is just too much of that out there - supply way outstrips demand.

 

There are two sources of demand here - collectors putting together date/mintmark sets, who have to have one of everything, and dealers specializing in the better date material. For the common coins, the collectors get their one coin and no one else cares. For the better dates, on the other hand, you have a lot more people going at it.

[Elcontador]

The tight type market, in my opinion, exists for these problem-free pieces and for attractive, original MS pieces.

 

Tom, generally I'd agree with you, but some particular series are still relatively soft. I picked up a really nice Draped Bust Dime in NGC 3 for between greysheet bid and ask last month. You can get an original, problem-free Braided Hair Large Cent in PC 5 RB for between $850-$900 if you look long enough. Type Liberty Nickels in PC 6 haven't moved in the last 2 1/2 years (though you need to look at a lot of them to find one you like). Ditto re type Shield Nickels in the same grade, and type SLQs in FH 6. Late dated Seated and Barber Dime type in MS 65 also has been soft for quite awhile.

[Oldtrader3]

Reporting in The Grey Sheet has been saying that some Type coins (i.e. Walkers and Morgans) have been softer recently, but now are strengthening. Other catagories (i.e. Seated, Barber Proofs) are stronger and Matte Proof Lincolns have moved up dramatically.

 

I have noticed non-show related dealer auction prices softening slightly on Type. Tax time may slow things down for a month or so also.

[James_OldeTowne]

The market is fluid, of course, but I would love to buy type coins at wholesale!

 

James