2014-D Sacagawea Enhanced Finish

[PocketArt]

Okay, I don't flip; or even sell on eBay, all my coins are added to family collection that I inherited and will be passed on to my son, and hopefully; future generations.

 

It was towards the end of 2014 that I read an article in Coin World Weekly about the sellout at the U.S. mint on this product. It was news to me at the time; I never ordered a product from the mint and reading that there was only 50,000 of these minted prompted me to rush to eBay and purchase one for my collection. I secured "one" for my collection and was satisfied until...

 

I saw a MS70 listed for crazy money on eBay because of very low population, and then subsequently read about a missing "lettering on edge" in Coin World concerning these dollars and decided to purchase a few more for investment. Well, that investment led to (2) unopened boxes of 10 Sacs.

 

I remember at the time of purchase; these products were selling like Wonka Bars!!!: single sets, unopened boxes from mint, singles graded from TPG...MS69's selling for $80+.....pandemonium! Interesting to observe until...

 

These items begin to sell for $55-$60 TPG in MS69, single sets for half price as what they were...

 

My first experience with a U.S. mint led by flipper / consumer driven bubble! Yes, lesson learned.

 

Question: I'm a subscriber to NGC and have access to coin values and noticed these are not yet valued...does the market need to adjust before NGC values these items?

 

I noticed that there are 5,167 of these graded by NGC; I would guess about the same from PCGS, and would represent about 1/5 minted of entire population of these- if not more!!!

 

Guess I should keep these Sacagaweas unopened for my names sake!

 

Rich

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

Rich, something I have learned is that supply always overwhelms demand. I used to collect baseball cards and when the number of manufacturers inreased and they all had multiple issues of the same player, they destroyed the industry.

 

First, always assume that a premium can dissipate or even disappear entirely (less likely but a good worst-case scenario to consider). Make SURE you are happy buying what you bought if it falls to face or bullion value.

 

Second, premiums are always hottest when an item first comes out. It's almost always the worst time to buy unless it's a really special and unique (and usually more expensive product), like the 2009 UHR Saint Gaudens. With a relatively inexpensive coin like the Sacagawea, even a huge premium makes it still inexpensive for the masses which means the premium/price can be elevated as the mint run is early. Plus, you get the Early Release and First Strike nonsense.

[World Colonial]

A couple of points to your post which are similar to Goldfinger's.

 

First, 50,000 looks like a low mintage but it isn't when considered in the context of the survival rate in high grade. Of the 50,000 minted, the lopsided percentage will remain in their original state since they won't ever circulate. The mintage is low in absolute terms but there are almost no other coins with this many survivors in near equivalent or "high" quality.

 

Second, I see no prospect that this coin will ever have anywhere near 50,000 collectors who will ever want it at a substantial premium to those you mentioned; possibly no premium in "real money" or adjusted for inflation longer term The observable evidence demonstrates that it is one of the least popular series in US coinage and like other series that aren't popular, its because collectors overwhelmingly consider its collectible attributes inferior.

 

Third, I suspect that a substantial percentage bought this coin for the same reason you did. They are "investors" speculating on the low mintage.

 

Fourth, ignore the NGC price guide, Redbook or other equivalent source unless it tracks actual prices.

 

Fifth, those with missing edge lettering sound like errors. The collector base for most errors isn't very high either.

[PocketArt]

All good points that both of you share.

 

Do you believe collector demand for the Sacagaweas will remain static into the future if this series is produced for another decade? Longevity of a series a factor?

 

Also, curious if there has been another coin seiries that had little interest initially; then became popular years later?

 

Thanks,

 

Rich

 

 

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

All good points that both of you share. Do you believe collector demand for the Sacagaweas will remain static into the future if this series is produced for another decade? Longevity of a series a factor?

 

Sure....if it stops after 1 year (which happened with the 2009 UHR) that is a HUGE factor. If it comes out every year forever (ASEs), that's the opposite. If it has a limited (10-years ?) run, that's sorta in-between.

 

The problem is this: in 10-15 years, after the run is over, there will be NEW coins being produced of whatever is hot at the moment -- Rock & Roll Stars, NBA Players, Super Bowl coins, whatever -- so who is going to want to buy Sacqagaweas or other coins at big premiums ?

 

MSDs ? Absolutely....CANNOT be produced, old coin, history behind it, a favorite of REAL collectors as opposed to speculators.

 

Saint-Gaudens DEs ? Ditto.

 

But other stuff can fall alot. I bought the 2013 Enhanced Finish ASE and Reverse Proof ASE at a huge premium to the underlhying silver. I'm down alot and probably will lose more $$$. But I only bought 2 of each (MS70 & 69) not dozens or more. I like the coins...will keep them.....hopefully I still enjoy looking at them in 10 years when silver is $70/oz. and they are still underwater.

 

Also, curious if there has been another coin series that had little interest initially; then became popular years later? Thanks,Rich

 

I'm sure there are, but I'll leave it to others to say which ones.

[World Colonial]

I'm not very good at using the quote feature but here is my reply.

 

I don't know how popular the Sacagewea series is today. The population reports and prices provide the best indication but I haven't looked at them in a long time.

 

I suspect a longer series will increase the popularity somewhat but not much because this isn't 1975 which is when I started collecting. Today with the internet, (prospective) collectors can collect anything within their budget which they could not do before due to limited communication and I don't see that this series is very compelling at all.

 

I presume it has a loyal but limited hard core following like all other US series but that of those who choose it, they like it but partly or mostly choose it out of ignorance of the competing alternatives. I have nothing against this series but can think thousands of coins (literally) which are lot more compelling in the price range you cited.

 

Today, I rank it ahead of SBA and presidential dollars but that is all. I consider the design better than most other US moderns but its lack of circulation isn't going to help its popularity.

 

On your second question, I recall reading accounts that Morgan dollars used to be less popular prior to the 1960's and the GSA release but if this is true, I attribute its change to "investment" buying starting in the 1970's. This will never apply to any base metal coins except in isolation as it is practiced today.

 

However, since 1975, there have been no changes in the preference order among any comparable series. As an example, the Morgan dollar was a lot more popular than Peace dollars then and it still is now.

 

I have read of accounts of earlier series (as in 19th century and earlier) which were not popular when they were issued among the general public but don't know how this applied to collectors.

 

The relevance to the Sac dollar is that its conceivable (though in my opinion not likely) that it will become more popular than another modern series (such as the FDR dime) but nothing more.

 

I also don't see that collecting in the aggregate will be more popular in the United States where the number of collectors will substantially increase. Under this scenario, any substantial increase in Sac popularity will mostly if not entirely come at the expense of other series.

[RWB]

"MSDs" ? Your definition?

[World Colonial]

Sure....if it stops after 1 year (which happened with the 2009 UHR) that is a HUGE factor. If it comes out every year forever (ASEs), that's the opposite. If it has a limited (10-years ?) run, that's sorta in-between.

 

The problem is this: in 10-15 years, after the run is over, there will be NEW coins being produced of whatever is hot at the moment -- Rock & Roll Stars, NBA Players, Super Bowl coins, whatever -- so who is going to want to buy Sacqagaweas or other coins at big premiums ?

 

I don't believe that the length of the ASE has impacted its popularity The two coins you used as examples I consider gimmicks and not real coins at all. I don't know how many others share this opinion but if its substantial, it likely means a disproportionate number of buyers were (and likely still are) speculators.

 

The point where I believe it becomes a problem is where the length of the set makes the cost prohibitive to its prospective collectors base and uncompetitive versus other options requiring the same "investment". Outside of the 1995-W and 70's, the ASE set is relatively affordable.

 

Think First spouse series in US coinage. A complete set cost what? $50K each for UNC and PR or near it? This is why despite the low mintage, there isn't any reason to believe this series is going anywhere outside of metal speculation or temporary marketing promotions. Assuming I wanted it, I could probably buy all 29 dates in the Capped Bust half (1807-1836) except the 1815 and maybe 1807 in AU-58 or slightly better for this amount.

[GoldFinger1969]

"MSDs" ? Your definition?

Sorry....Morgan Silver Dollars.

[GoldFinger1969]

The ASEs have demand every year for people who want silver. Ditto their gold counterparts.

 

So you have a natural constituency for fancy specials -- Reverse Proofs, Enhanced Finishes, Ultra-High Relief, etc. -- when they come out.

 

But there is really not a natural every year buying support for alot of these other coins, not from a numismatic point of view and certainly not from a bullion perspective.

 

So that is why I say "Be Careful" if you like the coin. And as far as making a big inve$$$$tment in a complete set or multi-year production run, well, you better LOVE the coins rather than hope that it's going to appreciate if you just hold it. Reminds me of folks who bought complete baseball card series...never opened the packs...put them in those long white boxes...and they did nothing but collect dust.

 

I have nothing against buying a particular coin for aesthetic or appearance reasons. But tying up big $$$ is different....better to make a pure-bullion purchase or even a quasi-bullion purchases with low-premium MSDs or Saints if your play is silver or gold.

[GoldFinger1969]

Think First spouse series in US coinage. A complete set cost what? $50K each for UNC and PR or near it? This is why despite the low mintage, there isn't any reason to believe this series is going anywhere outside of metal speculation or temporary marketing promotions. Assuming I wanted it, I could probably buy all 29 dates in the Capped Bust half (1807-1836) except the 1815 and maybe 1807 in AU-58 or slightly better for this amount.

First, glad to see you got the Quote Feature down pat, WC !

 

Second, I don't even know this set that well but I see it's gold coins in mostly fractions of an ounce (?) selling at HUGE premiums. This is clearly a speculation and not an investment if you buy to make money. And I think you speculate.....and....LOSE !!

 

I'll bring up the SS Central America coins.....fantastic story....limited amount of new supply (no more SS Central America wrecks and shipwrecked coins happen very rarely).....desirable coins filling hard-to-get gaps in Liberty Double Eagle series......all that, and folks who bought initially when gold was $300/oz. were still underwater (for most purchases) or barely up when gold was up 6-fold to $1,800 an ounce.

 

The 2.5 ounce restrikes were selling for $5,000 or about 600% premium to gold when they first came out about 2001 or 2002. I bought one about 10 years later for about an 11-12% premium to gold.

[RWB]

Maybe this slogan will help: "Hype doesn't fit in a holder."

 

(OK -- have done better but it's late here.)

[World Colonial]

Second, I don't even know this set that well but I see it's gold coins in mostly fractions of an ounce (?) selling at HUGE premiums. This is clearly a speculation and not an investment if you buy to make money. And I think you speculate.....and....LOSE !!

 

I believe the coins have the same gold content as a pre-1934 eagle or about half an ounce. Not sure of the premiums but the point I was making is that to most collectors, they are closer to glorified bullion rounds, have zero numismatic appeal yet the metal content alone makes them cost prohibitive. I suspect a substantial proportion of those who own it (if not most) are actually speculators who have been fooled into thinking the low mintage will reward them financially one day. Except for the two reasons I gave, I see zero prospects for it in my lifetime.

 

The reason I brought it up was to use it as an example of a series which is rather lengthy but has almost zero appeal. There are also numerous world NCLT which unlike the ASE, have low mintages and some are popular. Unlike their proponents, I don't see that these have anywhere near the implied potential either for a similar reason. They aren't cheap today and any substantial appreciation combined with extending it indefinitely will make it both hopelessly unaffordable to its collector base and completely uncompetitive versus series which are overwhelmingly considered superior numismatically. This is aside that these low mintages still leave them as a lot more common in "high" quality versus the lopsided proportion of all other coins.

 

[GoldFinger1969]

WC, I 100% completely agree. A few additional comments:

 

With most coin collectors being men (anybody know how many are women ? I'm gonna guess about 5%) something with female spouses is not going to have much appeal to most of the male collectors, IMO. Throw in the added cost of the metal, bingo ! Susan B. Anthony and Sacagawea also had limited appeal, as I recall.

 

Conversely, I think the U.S. General coins that came out about a year or so ago had good demand.

 

And with limited mintage, the 2009 UHR Saint Gaudens could replace someone's regular gold Eagle purchase at a slight premium plus bring back an historic coin plus have the Ultra High Relief that the 1907 Original could only have on a dozen or so coins because of the difficulty of the striking.

What's interesting is you would think many coin dealers got burned buying some of these Mint Specials -- everything from the special ASEs to the Spouse coins -- you would hear more stories about them getting burned and suffering losses. I haven't seen any, but I am not a voluminous reader of the journals so maybe someone else saw something, even with anonymous quotes from guys who got burned. Doubt anybody would go on the record as losing money by being a dumb speculator.

[World Colonial]

I know a lot of collectors in the US like the 1907 UHR Saint. Its price demonstrates it. Personally, I consider it one of the most overpriced classics because for the $20k which a typical example is worth, anyone can by much better coins.

 

The 2009 UHR to me isn't much of a real coin either but unlike First Spouse or many modern commemoratives, its evident my opinion is in the minority. I don't see that its mintage is particularly limited, it is still an expensive coin given how common it is and unlike the original version, it isn't even a circulating coin. I don't see that its financial prospects are that good either. It appears to have sold for lot more when bullion prices were much higher but its numismatic premium has decreased substantially with the decline in metal prices. This is from the Heritage archives.

 

I would far prefer to own a pre-1933 gold coin, Saint or otherwise.

[GoldFinger1969]

I know a lot of collectors in the US like the 1907 UHR Saint. Its price demonstrates it. Personally, I consider it one of the most overpriced classics because for the $20k which a typical example is worth, anyone can by much better coins.

 

Well, those are technically patterns (the EXR/UHR super-rare ones) but the entire run of the 1907 HR are still very popular since they are the first in the 1907-33 series and they are the practical version of the 1907 EXR that was too difficult to make.

 

The 2009 UHR to me isn't much of a real coin either but unlike First Spouse or many modern commemoratives, its evident my opinion is in the minority. I don't see that its mintage is particularly limited, it is still an expensive coin given how common it is and unlike the original version, it isn't even a circulating coin. I don't see that its financial prospects are that good either. It appears to have sold for lot more when bullion prices were much higher but its numismatic premium has decreased substantially with the decline in metal prices. This is from the Heritage archives.

 

Like anything that was "hot" the premium has cooled as time has passed and in this case the price of gold, after originally rising by 50%, has fallen. But they are still selling for nice premiums, even the TPG coins. The fact that it is a gold coin, a UHR coin, and a copy of the famous Saint-Gaudens coins, all add up to desirability (IMO) and that is why despite a mintage of close to 115,000 demand has been pretty even with the supply. Plus, investors knew there wouldn't be comparable coins made every year or every few years.

 

I would far prefer to own a pre-1933 gold coin, Saint or otherwise.

 

I think most people still spend most of their $$$ there rather than buying multiple versions of the 2009. But most people want at least 1 of that version.

[World Colonial]

I know a lot of collectors in the US like the 1907 UHR Saint. Its price demonstrates it. Personally, I consider it one of the most overpriced classics because for the $20k which a typical example is worth, anyone can by much better coins.

 

Well, those are technically patterns (the EXR/UHR super-rare ones) but the entire run of the 1907 HR are still very popular since they are the first in the 1907-33 series and they are the practical version of the 1907 EXR that was too difficult to make.

 

I stand corrected. I mixed them up with the HR.

[GoldFinger1969]

I know a lot of collectors in the US like the 1907 UHR Saint. Its price demonstrates it. Personally, I consider it one of the most overpriced classics because for the $20k which a typical example is worth, anyone can by much better coins.

Well, those are technically patterns (the EXR/UHR super-rare ones) but the entire run of the 1907 HR are still very popular since they are the first in the 1907-33 series and they are the practical version of the 1907 EXR that was too difficult to make.

I stand corrected. I mixed them up with the HR.

 

The EHR is simply unaffordable in any condition for anyone not super-rich. The 1907 HR will cost you lots of $$$, but it is within reach of many if not an easy purchase $$$-wise.

[World Colonial]

Yes, I am familiar with both. I just did not read your comments thoroughly the first time.

 

The HR Saint is very expensive for its availability. As an academic exercise, I once attempted to identify all coins where at least 150 of them are worth $15,000 or more. I identified 20 US coins (including this one) and three elsewhere. I also came up with an additional 14 US coins where I understand 125-150 are worth this price.

 

[PocketArt]

 

The relevance to the Sac dollar is that its conceivable (though in my opinion not likely) that it will become more popular than another modern series (such as the FDR dime) but nothing more.

 

I also don't see that collecting in the aggregate will be more popular in the United States where the number of collectors will substantially increase. Under this scenario, any substantial increase in Sac popularity will mostly if not entirely come at the expense of other series.

 

 

I believe one of the reasons for the lack of interest with the FDR dime is that it is the longest running series ever minted that has not gone through any significant changes. Aside from the flip of the mint mark from the reverse to the obverse in '68, and minor enhancements to the torch I believe also in '68- nothing has changed...asside from composition. Would be interesting to know how the public / collectors intitially embraced the FDR dime in '46 and if there was a great deal of negative perception and if that put the series off on the wrong tracking for future collectors. I'd think it would have been percieved as a "dud" after having in circulation the Winged Liberty Head for 30years.

 

In regards to the Sacagawea; It wouldn't surprise me that the U.S. mint is trying to increase popularity with this series through low mintage products with the enhanced finish. The follow up 2015 -W enhanced finish has a mintage of 90,000 and last I checked this can still be purchased. Also, I have the 2016 P & D rolls and the "D" is prooflike on the ends. The prooflikes appear more often it seems on the "D" as do for America the Beautiful Series Quarters too for some reason. I also have a few 2015 D Roosevelts that look prooflike.

 

 

[PocketArt]

 

So that is why I say "Be Careful" if you like the coin. And as far as making a big inve$$$$tment in a complete set or multi-year production run, well, you better LOVE the coins rather than hope that it's going to appreciate if you just hold it. Reminds me of folks who bought complete baseball card series...never opened the packs...put them in those long white boxes...and they did nothing but collect dust.

 

I have nothing against buying a particular coin for aesthetic or appearance reasons. But tying up big $$$ is different....better to make a pure-bullion purchase or even a quasi-bullion purchases with low-premium MSDs or Saints if your play is silver or gold.

 

 

Good analogy with Baseball Cards- collected too. Was disapointing to see the market crash on these through marketing run amuk, special sets, series, influx of manufacturers and your right; it truly killed the hobby.

 

Reflecting on those days; do you think it would have a negative impact on coin collecting if the U.S. mint manufactured very limited strikes of gold and silver strikes of various denominations and placed them at random in mint and proof sets? Examples- silver alloy Lincoln Cent and Jefferson Nickel, gold alloy Sacagawea? I'm sure would drive sales at the mint...might be interesting.

 

In regards to bullion; I get much more gratification from low grade silver coins than from pure bullion rounds, or, bar; just has that history that speaks I suppose.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

There are many different types of collectors and collections:

 

(1) Long-running coins (pennies, dimes) with low costs to purchase many of the coins.

 

(2) Long-running coins (MSDs, gold fractionals) with moderate costs to purchase some/many of the coins.

 

(3) Long-running coins (Saints, Liberty DEs) with high costs to purchase individual coins.

 

(4) Short-run series (State Quarters, Sacagawea, Spouses) with varying costs.

 

(5) 1-Timers like the 2009 UHR or Reverse Proofs or Enhanced Finished products

 

I guess that the Mint uses past buying experience, current mailing lists and response rates (online, mail order) for various products and then uses some algorithm to predict the demand for a product. They rarely have big shortages or gluts of a product.

[GoldFinger1969]

Good analogy with Baseball Cards- collected too. Was disapointing to see the market crash on these through marketing run amuk, special sets, series, influx of manufacturers and your right; it truly killed the hobby.

Did you see this video ?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/collectors-lament-baseballs-house-of-cards/

 

 

 

[PocketArt]

Sums it up perfectly. What a time...

 

Interesting story:

 

My Dad introduced me to coin collecting when I was 8 years old; in 1982. My first coin series that I put together was a Jefferson Nickle set, and was fortunate that there was a coin shop in town, at the time, not far from my house. I'd ride my bike up to the shop with my book, and buy coins with money I earned from chores. The dealer up there who I just knew as Ed, was reputable, and very patient. I spent a lot of time up there and enjoyed his company and also looking at his coins. He wasn't in business very long and ended up selling his coin inventory and business to another dealer named Gene, around 1985; who also sold Baseball Cards.

 

Well, coins weren't an interest to my friends, as baseball cards were, and my Dad's influence in coins had less and less of an impact on me. I'd given up coins at that time and spent ALL my money, as did my friends on baseball cards. By 1986 Gene just sold baseball cards and didn't deal in coins. Every kid in town went up there; Gene made money hand over fist and was even known to open packs of baseball cards up and take the valuable rookie cards out and "re-seal" them. Sell the singles for more money. He had the market cornerd at the time; no other dealer around and we were all hooked! We used to like to try to pull one over on him as well since he lowerd the bar with honesty, and being reputable. Very rarely could we ever though- many a time fell victim to his superior mind tricks. I stoped going up there around 1989-90; gave up the hobby in 92' sold cards for another misadventure...

 

In retrospect; Ed, the coin dealer, who was a gentlemen, through and through, educated me and never once shooed me out for looking and talking. I saw him more as a friend than dealer at that age. When Gene took over; he capitalized on our impulse, and wasn't interested in anything beyond superficial chummy talk to get our money. He went out of business around 94-95.

 

It may be safe to say; that a good part of my generation was lost to baseball cards from those that otherwise would have collected coins.

 

 

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

Great story, Pocket....I got into cards late-1980's right after graduating from college. I went to some local and regional shows. My young cousins were 10-15 at that time, prime baseball card collecting age.

 

I would take them to the Gloria Rothstein Show in Westchester County (NY) and the East Coast Regional which was on Long Island at the Nassau Vets Colliseum (home of the NHL Islanders). Both places were PACKED like the video showed above. We'd go with cash and buy cards. I remember once going to some very small show about 1993 or 1994 and we saw the WWF wrestler Nikolai Volkoff sitting all by himself at a table with hardly anybody around him. A few years earlier and he'd have been mobbed.

 

BTW, that PAL building shown in the video is also where the Parsippany Coin Show is held.

[World Colonial]

I believe one of the reasons for the lack of interest with the FDR dime is that it is the longest running series ever minted that has not gone through any significant changes. Aside from the flip of the mint mark from the reverse to the obverse in '68, and minor enhancements to the torch I believe also in '68- nothing has changed...asside from composition. Would be interesting to know how the public / collectors intitially embraced the FDR dime in '46 and if there was a great deal of negative perception and if that put the series off on the wrong tracking for future collectors. I'd think it would have been percieved as a "dud" after having in circulation the Winged Liberty Head for 30years.

 

In regards to the Sacagawea; It wouldn't surprise me that the U.S. mint is trying to increase popularity with this series through low mintage products with the enhanced finish. The follow up 2015 -W enhanced finish has a mintage of 90,000 and last I checked this can still be purchased. Also, I have the 2016 P & D rolls and the "D" is prooflike on the ends. The prooflikes appear more often it seems on the "D" as do for America the Beautiful Series Quarters too for some reason. I also have a few 2015 D Roosevelts that look prooflike.

 

For the FDR dime, the length of the series might have something to do with it but mostly for these reasons:

 

1) Collectors do and have always considered the design overwhelmingly inferior. I consider it the worst among all US coinage. There may have been some sentiment for it in 1946 after FDR died but if so, I have never heard of it in contrast to the Kennedy half.

2) It is a small coin and larger coins are always more popular given equal or even comparable attributes.

3) Most of the series is base metal.

4) Even by US standards (never mind elsewhere), the coin is incredibly common except for specialized collecting. In MS-66 (usually the"under grade"), I estimate every single one of these coins are either an R-1 or at most an R-2 on the Judd scale.

 

If you look at these four factors, is there any reason from this combination to expect that these series will ever become a lot more popular? Some think "yes" but somehow, it doesn't ever happen, does it? The only thing I can say in its favor is that for those who want to complete a set from US coinage on a limited budget, it is the cheapest and probably the easiest.

 

On the SAC, if the US Mint is using the approach you state, I don't believe its going to be successful. I'm not sure what most collectors think of these alternative finishes. Personally, I consider them gimmicks and even if I collected the series, don't think them necessary for a "complete" set. In absolute terms, the mintage is "limited" but I don't believe there are anywhere near 90,000 actual collectors who will ever want it at any noticeable premium.

 

Like most other Mint releases, I believe a disproportionate percentage of the buyers are casual collectors, speculators and non-collectors. I presume the series is "popular" like the FDR dime (though smaller) measured in the size of the collector base but that the lopsided proportion will abandon it as soon as their financial circumstances enable them to buy something better.

[World Colonial]

Reflecting on those days; do you think it would have a negative impact on coin collecting if the U.S. mint manufactured very limited strikes of gold and silver strikes of various denominations and placed them at random in mint and proof sets? Examples- silver alloy Lincoln Cent and Jefferson Nickel, gold alloy Sacagawea? I'm sure would drive sales at the mint...might be interesting.

 

I believe the US Mint would have no trouble selling them but concurrently don't believe most collectors would be interested in them longer term. Your example reminds me of Canadian bi-metallic precious metal commemoratives and colored coins. Pure gimmicks as far as I am concerned.

 

 

[World Colonial]

There are many different types of collectors and collections:

 

(1) Long-running coins (pennies, dimes) with low costs to purchase many of the coins.

 

(2) Long-running coins (MSDs, gold fractionals) with moderate costs to purchase some/many of the coins.

 

(3) Long-running coins (Saints, Liberty DEs) with high costs to purchase individual coins.

 

(4) Short-run series (State Quarters, Sacagawea, Spouses) with varying costs.

 

(5) 1-Timers like the 2009 UHR or Reverse Proofs or Enhanced Finished products

 

I guess that the Mint uses past buying experience, current mailing lists and response rates (online, mail order) for various products and then uses some algorithm to predict the demand for a product. They rarely have big shortages or gluts of a product.

 

I can see the Mint using your assumptions with new releases. My observation is that they are a successful marketing organization but this is independent of the popularity and financial performance in the secondary market. Personally, I believe they have issued far too much "product" in the last 30 years and most of it will ultimately be forgotten and sell at lower or much lower prices.

 

Your summary of series is a good one but I would also add at least one more factor. The difficulty to complete it independent of the cost. This isn't true of US series because all (relatively) scarce US coins are expensive but it is elsewhere.

[GoldFinger1969]

Agreed, WC.....BTW, what do you think caused the JFK Gold Coin debacle ? Do you think it was just that the resell price was way above what it cost from the Mint ?

[World Colonial]

Agreed, WC.....BTW, what do you think caused the JFK Gold Coin debacle ? Do you think it was just that the resell price was way above what it cost from the Mint ?

 

I didn't follow it that closely; only from what I read here and on the PCGS forum. I believe the price decline immediately following the run-up after the release was due to the greed and speculation you mention.

 

But longer term, I also believe it is yet one more US Mint product with an excessive supply issued at a price point way above its likely target market. There are over 50,000 right? I see absolutely no prospects that there are or ever (as in my lifetime) will be over 50,000 collectors who will want to own it. I presume and believe most buyers were and will be speculators.

 

Aside from the distribution which was a complete fiasco, to provide support in the secondary market, they should have reduced the mintage