a straight forward market report by www.johnmaben.com former ngc finalizer

[michael]

MARKET REPORT

 

Breaking news:

 

FUN 2005 Concluded: Market Strength for Rare Coins Unabated by Enormous New Supply

 

We just returned from the FUN show in Ft Lauderdale where activity was brisk on many different levels. I think many (if not most) of the dealers will need some recuperation time due to an exhausting auction and show schedule. Collectors were out in force and we had the opportunity to meet many of the faces behind the emails, phone conversations, and trades done on eBay and the dealer networks.

 

Our sales were roughly triple what our purchases were, but I'm certain that was mainly because I was somewhat uncomfortable with the size of the room and elected to stay put at the table for most of the time. The only soft areas I saw were generic gold and generic Morgan and Peace dollars, and even there, they were trading steadily, albeit at lower levels. Other than a large deal of $20 St Gaudens in MS65, I heard of no "dumping" that took place at distress levels.

 

Silver commems, high grade type coins, and high grade/low pop proof gold were all very strong. I had several good buyers wanting to buy coins from us and not enough material to satisfy them all. Auction prices were anywhere from at market, to somewhere in the stratosphere. Tens of millions of dollars in new supply resulting from "auction mania" did not cause any noticeable negative impact on prices at the show. Big money is in play with big coins.

 

Despite the lions share of glory going to mega-rarities, one should not let that undermine the strength and opportunities that lie within more common super high grade and mid priced rarities for those of us that are either not in the position to spend a million bucks on a single coin or not of the mind that it is the best strategy. To sum things up, while I would not want my vault filled with 81-S dollars in MS65 and $20 Saints in MS64, likewise I would not want a single or even 2 or three great rarities at telephone numbers. There is a happy medium and many fine coins that fall in between the extremes.

 

Since our last report gold and silver have taken a tumble, which is undoubtedly the catalyst behind the drop in generic gold. I am of the opinion, as are most of the pro's I know, that this is nothing more than a short term correction. Of course, time will tell, but I am calling for a return to mid 400 gold by early spring or sooner. The broader coin market should continue to move in tandem with the precious metals.

 

I continue to be amazed by the level of sophistication I am seeing in the collectors and investors who are seeking my services. Many are smart, informed, and know EXACTLY what they want. Others realize that a little guidance and advice from someone who is a full time professional would be prudent in accomplishing their longer-term goals. When I left the commercial marketplace in 1996 to join NGC, everyone was less informed and I am sure a big part of this maturation is a direct result of the proliferation of information that is widely dispersed via the internet.

 

Our office business has increased considerably, and as a result we may do less shows this year. We are a full service dealer in U.S. coins and popular bullion items and welcome your inquiries. We presently have several job opportunities available for qualified individuals, and invite you to look at the descriptions to see if you or someone you know might be interested in working for our growing company in the beautiful Bradenton/Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch area of Florida. If so, please feel free to contact me personally. For more information click on the "job openings" link in the menu bar at the left.

 

Best Regards,

John Maben www.johnmaben.com

[HaydenTubbs]

Yeah he's a pretty good guy,and a much better report than Legend's.

[Hoot]

Nice report. Sums the market up well.

 

Hoot

[CarolinaCollector]

Thanks for the report, John. My wife and I planned to go to the show, but last minute work commitments prevented us from attending.

 

We did win one coin at auction - an 1894 P Morgan NGC 58 PL. It wasn't quite as nice as the Choice AU coin in our set, but PL examples of this date are tough.

 

We hope to meet you at a future show.

[GP_]

Nice report, thanks for the update.

[HaydenTubbs]

Thanks for the report, John. My wife and I planned to go to the show, but last minute work commitments prevented us from attending.

 

We did win one coin at auction - an 1894 P Morgan NGC 58 PL. It wasn't quite as nice as the Choice AU coin in our set, but PL examples of this date are tough.

 

We hope to meet you at a future show.

Actually Michael(that's his name) isn't John Maben,he was just quoting John's report off of his website.

[Elcontador]

I think I'll put my spin on Mr. Maben's words of wisdom about today's coin market. "Right now, if you really like a classic coin, you're going to have to sell a family member -- one you actually like -- into indentured servitude in order to buy it."

[Wihlborg]

"Right now, if you really like a classic coin, you're going to have to sell a family member -- one you actually like -- into indentured servitude in order to buy it."

 

...Do you think I would be able to sell two family members that I don't really like instead of one that I do?

 

John

[RGT]

I stopped by the local dealer yesterday. I asked him if he had picked up any new stuff at FUN. He said he didn't buy a thing because prices were just too high. He also said he sold about twice what he was expecting to. The only specifics he mentioned was that early bust material seemed very strong.

 

I wonder how long a dealer can afford to quit buying because of strong prices before his inventory dwindles away...