If the Market is so Strong......

[dragon]

If the coin market is so strong and prices are predicted by many large dealers to keep rising.......

 

Then why are so many people selling their coins right now?? I am getting bombed with auction catalogs in the mail lately, like 2 or 3 a week for the past couple of months. Where are all these coins coming from, are dealers dumping inventory, are collectors dumping their collections, a combination of both? I know that rising markets are SUPPOSED to bring some nicer coins into the marketplace, but this seems way overdone to me, kind of like many people don't really believe this market and current pricing is sustainable.

 

I dunno, but some prices seem absurdly artificially inflated to me right now, especially some of the semi-key Carson City Morgan dates (78-CC, 80-CC, 85-CC, 90-CC, 91-CC, 92-CC). These are all dates with pops. in the thousands, yet prices are going through the roof on many of these dates lately...seems awfully fishy. Do you think this is a result of true collector demand, or manipulation of the 'sheets' by dealers?

[TomB]

Manipulation by folks who stand to gain from it would not surprise me in some instances. The overall depth and breadth of the market, however, makes substantial manipulation seem less likely.

 

I, too, am worried about some of the prices that coins are going for. This might simply be an aggressive correction to otherwise undervalued issues or it might be the sign of a niche-bubble. To me, wildly toned coins are terrific pieces to own, but I have been essentially shutout as of late from this market by the price structure. Who knows, perhaps we will look back at this price jump as the last of the "affordable" days for buying certain coins. To me, though, it seems as though one is exposing themselves needlessly on certain of these coins.

 

As for the catalogs, I also get a number of them and I wonder whether it is a sign of something that will continue unabated or is simply a blip.

[michael]

myself for most issues not all issues but most issues PRE 1950 the market is really not that STRONG

 

and again from what i have seen is that yes there are certian issues that are being promoted pushed manulipated as you call it

 

for example

with specific morgan dollars as you mentioned so since this is an artificial market i will not include it here in my thoughts

 

but most all like over 85% of items in auctions with currently a huge amount

of coins are being moved are just what i call "stuff" average at best nothing special that is being moved to get out of because in this marklet it is liquid at prices not seen in years for stuff average [!@#%^&^]

 

and i think for the most part

 

there are many holding really good special items and not selling and there are many collectors new and old with lots of $$$$ to spend but only on the great coins that are decent vecent waiting in the wings hungry to buy

 

but there is just not anything special to buy they will stretch too but nothing worthwhile to stretch for maybe a coin or two here or there in a few months maybe...............

 

of course there are some monster great coins available but well at crazy prices so not a good value or deal

 

and i am think there are some great coins at auctions that go for good value or even if you have to stretch a little pricewise they are still great coins at good values but

 

these coins are few and far between

 

i think true high end dealers looking for special coins

it is the hardest to find such coins in this current market than in the last decade or two

 

the problem is a traditional slow summer

so many shows and auctions the last few months this causes cash flow problems and coins are no matter what market thinly traded and highly undercapitalized dealers need a breather as they have done 2 years worth or work in the last 6 months!

and just not enough of the right special coins coming out

 

and with the sheets so lagging far behind

 

i think this all adds up to a market that has cooled and this is good we need a good breather before we continue our climb to the next level

 

but make no mistake about it when

 

for example

 

when a toned or other next gem to superb gem proof or ms scarce

 

seated/barber/copper nickelindian cent/the list goes on and on

 

coin with many superb qualities about it

 

is for sale it will sell for strong really strong money and be worth every penny

 

 

michael

[John Maben]

I think we have an ideal situation right now. Smart to be a seller into a strong market. Why sell into any other kind of market? On the other hand, demand is still strong and those who have not reached their time horizon are still aggressively buying.

 

John

[cladking]

I think what we are seeing is an unusual confluence of factors. Most importantly is the large numbers of collectors who have retired or moved out of the hobby since the last time it was a sellers market. Many of these people have wanted to sell for years but the market has been so weak that they've put it off. Now they are selling. There are also a few tired longs from the last run-up in 1989 who just want out, and some of these see an opportunity to get out with a profit which might be substantial. Returning collectors and old timers have been easily absorbing all this material. If the market strenght continues or increases the numbers of these collections should should peak in the near future.

 

With large numbers of collectors in their 50's and 60's it should continue for another decade.

[CarlWohlforth]

John Maben and Mark Feld are going out on their own. That means they will have to buy inventory! I wonder what that is telling us about the market?

[Leothelion]

The other day, I treked 40 miles to a 350 lot auction! Besides not seeing anything of interest, most of the stuff was Fair to Fine silver and copper with few dating before 1860. Your run of mint and proof sets! There must of been 50-60 old farts in there hammering it out to buy up common silver dollars and the like that weren't worth the value of the silver. The stuff looked like some dealer's low end inventory to pay the rent! I was there through the first 20 mins, didn't see anything and left!

 

Leo

[RobertB]

I personally just sold nearly all my holdings save for some key date materials . I feel strongly that we've hit the mountain top and I stand to do well. I've decided to get back into firearms and shooting again and that's not all together cheap so it works for me right now. Hey, buy low sell high right ? Don't get me wrong though, I kept my favorites regardless of price !

[chinook]

The other day, I treked 40 miles to a 350 lot auction! Besides not seeing anything of interest, most of the stuff was Fair to Fine silver and copper with few dating before 1860. Your run of mint and proof sets! There must of been 50-60 old farts in there hammering it out to buy up common silver dollars and the like that weren't worth the value of the silver. The stuff looked like some dealer's low end inventory to pay the rent! I was there through the first 20 mins, didn't see anything and left!

 

Leo

 

I have had similiar experiences with auctions in my area. At the last one there was a group of common date AT Morgans in XF that sold for about $50 a piece. The AT was pretty but in the end they were still $10 coins.

[michael]

I have had similiar experiences with auctions in my area. At the last one there was a group of common date AT Morgans in XF that sold for about $50 a piece. The AT was pretty but in the end they were still $10 coins.

 

 

 

as per the above i wonder who these buyers will blame when they are offered 7 to 8 dollars apiece for these morgans when they go to sell them??

 

michael