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I am about to be exiled...

50 posts in this topic

...from the other side of the street. It's been a long time coming, but I finally blew my stack over there at the modern/slab/grading company/kool-aid drinking idiocy so common on that side of the street. Yeah, maybe I went over the top with a few comments, but it was a lot of built-up angst that expressed itself in the use of the term insufficiently_thoughtful_person and insufficiently_thoughtful_person. So I guess I'll be spending more time over here, since It's illegal to be mean over there, unless it's to be mean to those outside the PCGS bubble.

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Jeff,

 

Why don't you take a brief hiatus from the boards in general and spend time collecting coins and playing with the family and friends?

 

Come back in the new year and share with us all that is new and exciting in the intervening couple of weeks. Perhaps you'll hear more about FUN by then.

 

Regards,

 

EVP

 

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Don't listen to EVP....sure, he is calm and rational, but that is no fun. Nope, go back over there and hammer those worthless stinking modern guys good. Don't let up until you get exiled grin.gif

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Ok, I have a serious response... if anyone here can take it!

 

I think one of the biggest problems with the top-pop moderns debate is that it's always argued with too much generality. People make generalities how they're rare or how they're not rare.

 

The truth is that in every series there's overrated stuff and underrated stuff. Obviously, this is all relative to supply and demand.

 

A lot of people bash moderns because of the hype of top-pops. Well, guess what? Hyping exists for many other series too. Take a look at ED's. Or, pretty much every popular series. How does anyone think they became popular? By hype and marketing, of course!

 

Anyway, this debate isn't worth my time when I'm starving...

 

EVP

 

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Excellent response EVP - just excellent !

 

Bashing moderns or classics and the people who collect them is like bashing somebody because of the color of their shirt - it's rediculous. Let people collect what they like to collect - what difference does it make ?

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since It's illegal to be mean over there, unless it's to be mean to those outside the PCGS bubble.

 

Ohh, I disagree with that. I'm mean to those inside the PCGS bubble and all they do is shake their heads at me. They never threaten to ban me.

 

In fact, the only time they ever contacted me was when I took on Mr. Registry and some hysterical liar contacted me late at night on a weekend.

 

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Well, you have to think. The coins that you collect (classics) were considered moderns once, right? Those people that collected those "moderns" back then, actually benefits you today. Without those people collecting those moderns at the time, we may not have such wonderful specimens today. We're just simply saving these coins for the future when someday they will be considered classics. Just my opinion.

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Two things draw me to collecting coins, obviously the coin itself, what it represents and the history behind it. Modern coins too will develope a history someday.

 

The second thing that draws me to collecting is the enthusiasm generated by the people who collect coins. Personally I think it is sad to criticize what others find fun in collecting. My daughters wanted to collect washington quarters, proofs.They like them and over time I got attached to them also. I have to say too that I am proud of the 36-42 set, they are knockout coins and were fun finding.

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The coins that you collect (classics) were considered moderns once, right? Those people that collected those "moderns" back then, actually benefits you today. Without those people collecting those moderns at the time, we may not have such wonderful specimens today. We're just simply saving these coins for the future when someday they will be considered classics.

 

Of course they minted a few million of those coins and a few hundred million of these coins. They also minted those old coins under some pretty bad conditions.

 

I'm sure 200 years from now the coin collectors will look at those slabbed MS66 State Quarters like we look at old coin, like circ large cents. They'll say they look neat and have history, but if there just wasn't so many of them out there they'd be worth more than a paltry $200 (when a Big Mac costs $75).

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Yet again, to be perfectly clear, I have nothing against people collecting moderns, but most of these people are actually collecting slabs. Ask yourself, do you believe any of them would pay $1000 for a raw state quarter? As for today's moderns being tomorrow's classics, that is likely true, more true a decade or more ago, when people paid reasonable prices for modern coins. Do you think collectors a century ago would find it reasonable to pay 10,000 times face value for a coin for their collection? Especially a common date coin? You must have a dismal view of future inflation rates if you think someday people will be fighting at auctions to pay six-figure sums for tomorrow's classics.

 

By all means, collect what you want, and spend what you want (after all, what little money wasn't lost on internet stocks has to be flushed somewhere), just don't start whining and suing when the bubble bursts.

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"...but most of these people are actually collecting slabs. Ask yourself, do you believe any of them would pay $1000 for a raw state quarter? "

 

I think beginners would not pay that kind of money for a raw quarter. But, I think so not because they collect holders, but because many modern collectors use the certified grade for guidance on the coins condition, i.e., they don't know exactly how to grade these coins themselves. If I didn't know how to grade, but I wanted an MS69, then I would buy a certified example. And, once you see multiple examples and learn to grade for yourself, you can discriminate between MS67-68-69 etc., and buy nice, accurately graded certified or uncertified examples. That is, you can pick nice slabbed examples rather than just any slabbed coin, and you can do the same with raw coins. Human beings placed that MS69 on the holder, and collectors can do the same.

 

Also, there are people who only collect certified coins in any series. Therefore, limiting these people to the modern collectors doesn't always work.

 

Finally, there will, of course, always be people who just collect the holders! That has been a problem since slabs first appeared and has nothing in particular to do with the age of the coin.

 

But, as I like to say: There are always exceptions to the rule!

 

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I agree with most of your points, but Coinman, you skirted the main issue. Not only would modern collectors not pay such sums for raw coins, but no one would! Have you ever seen such a price for a raw modern coin? I haven't. Yet each of these coins started raw. In fact, I don't even think the mint bags are going for such sums, yet surely there lies a high grade coin among the thousands in the bag.

 

You are right, this extends to classic collectors as well, but there are fewer examples of such extreme valuations, and far fewer raw uncs that may become the highest graded coins.

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Not only do modern collectors come in many types but so do modern coins.

 

If you dislike modern coins and collectors so much why post about them or engage them on two sites? What do you hope to gain? Are you only looking to stir things up.

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Cladking,

 

I suggest you go back and read my post more carefully. I never said I dislike moderns, quite the opposite, I actually own just about all moderns in my various sets, and I enjoy the designs for the most part, though some I don't really care for. I also said repeatedly that I do not mind modern COIN collectors, but rather have a problem with the hype/mania/bubble mentality of those collecting high-grade certified modern condition rarities (ie modern PLASTIC collectors). Am I just trying to stir things up? No. I am really just trying to have a menaingful interchange with people so that I can understand what I am missing in all this (if there is something I am missing, and I really should reallocate my resources from better date Saints that I am currently collecting to State quarters, I'd like to know), and to give an alternative view so that people can actually thing about what they are spending so much money on. Unfortunately, it's like swinning upstream, and today I will be forced to continually hear how great moderns are, and how cheap the $1000 MS-68 whatever clad coin is, while in a few years, I will be forced to endure similar threads on how everyone was duped/deceived/ripped off during the modern bubble, similar to the things I hear each day about internet stock losses.

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I hesitate to post on any site about the potential of these coins for fear of being ripped apart. Many of these coins are ridiculously undervalued. They catalog at fractions of their true value or they are not listed at all. If the demand continues to grow than you had better get used to this bubble since it can grow for many years and grow many times it's current size. All this growth to date has been without the benefit of even a standard price guide. Now with Coin World publishing a guide it will give many potential buyers and sellers a starting point for negotiation. There are many trends involved in this process. These trends are not going to change direction overnight even if at some point these markets do get too far ahead of themselves. ...And perhaps most importantly, these coins do have a small loyal following now so they will be collected for many years even if the trends were to reverse, the rarities will be sought after.

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Clad,

 

I respect your opinion on the market, but it is just your opinion, and I remain skeptical. As far as this continuing, it may for many years, and people like yourself that have educated themselves, learned how to grade and how to identify bargains are definitely in the minority on this one. What is true with this market, or the internet stock market or any other market is that when you have a flood of new, less informed participants, what you have by definition is speculation. And when that speculation becomes rampant, the market is destined to crash. I am not sure where we are in the cycle for modern slabs, but we are definitely within that cycle. The fact that you and I disagree on the values of these coins is what makes a market. I just wish you could short these things!

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I've been in these coins a very long time and can assure you it is not the disagreement which makes the market. If it were there would have been a booming market since even before the first of these coins was struck. It is almost strictly demand which makes the market. And it is largely the many new collectors which constitute this demand. It is not fair to these collectors to figure they can not become more sophisticated or to figure that many have not already achieved some level of expertise. Much of the turmoil in these markets is caused by factors outside of the control of the participants and is merely the lack of developement in the markets themselves. As time goes on more and more stability will crop up, but in the meantime there will be growing pains.

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And it is largely the many new collectors which constitute this demand.

 

Will this demand continue? Probably not. Series get hot and then die. Lots of collectors that entered coins because of the state quarters left and moved on to other things.

 

If the high prices continue for many of these coins, then people will search for them and "make" more.

 

How many TRUE collectors have entered this hobby recently?

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How many TRUE collectors have entered this hobby recently?

 

No more than any other time in history. You have thousands of people collecting state quarters as a fad, but in time, that will pass, and few of them will transition to the rest of the coin market.

 

The only way around that would be if the Mint changes designs and gets something besides a Dead President off the coins and something that hearkens back to the classic designs. If people knew that we actually had good designs at one time, they might get interested in coins.

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For the modern classic debate, I put together a small study on pricing, and posted it on the PCGS forum, here is a link:

 

Modern Vs Classic Pricing Thread

 

It's far from perfect, but at least it's a fact based post, rather than the opinion based posts masquerading as fact that seem to permeate this sort of discussion.

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Well that didn't work. Completely degraded into a shouting match, and now that one of them designated me a "troll" I have taken the opportunity to exile myself! At least I seem to fit in a bit more here, and will likely find more enjoyment sans eBay/grading results/pop reports/cheerleading threads over here.

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Jeff,

 

You might try the comparison again, but this time, maybe take a single denomination, like quarters, and work your way through the Types (Draped Bust, Capped Bust, Seated, etc..) for all grades AU through MS. Would bet that the percentage jump between grades would still open some eyes for more than just the moderns. laugh.gif

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Good thought Keith, I think I may try that one, perhaps on New Years day while watching football. I will post what I find.

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We chase these new collectors away almost as fast as they find the hobby and then whine that there are so few serious new collectors. How would you feel if you discovered your hobby and when you discovered this site virtually everyone tells you that you collect . That you're a insufficiently_thoughtful_person? That you are unsophisticated fodder for the many dishonest dealers in the hobby and that you'll lose everything you've put into it? That your only possible salvation is to dump it all immediately and buy some real coins costing hundreds or thousands of dollars. Have you ever tried to look at any of this from a newbies perspective? Have you ever wondered who'll pick up the banner when we move on.

 

 

If you could successfully drive off all these newbies you'd find your coins would lose much of heir value.

 

Thank God the hobby will probably survive despite your efforts. There are huge numbers of people collecting old coins from circulation and far more collecting the new coins. Some of these people are finding encouragement rather than the continual whine of those watching coins they detest do well.

 

You wanna rant. There's a rant!

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jtryka -

 

For what it is worth - I just today got around to reading the thread you mention. I thought you did an excellent job - honestly.

 

Even though it may seem that you and I have been on opposite sides of the fence when it comes to opinions about moderns ( seems like almost everybody is on the opposite side of the fence from me at times ). We're not really - I happen to agree with most of what you say - especially regarding present day prices - they're rediculous. Most of my opinions have always been based on what i think the future will hold regarding moderns - not what today holds. But that's another subject.

 

Back to your spreadsheet. You have done what I have been doing for several years - comparing certain aspects of moderns to older coins. Admittedly you're doing it for a different reason. You are trying to show what is to many the outrageous price differences for grades. While I have been searching for patterns in grade survivability. But as your numbers show - similar differences can also occur in older coins as well.

 

Be that as it may - if you choose to continue this - and I hope you do - try adding some additional data to it. You mentioned you used Numismedia for your price info - add to that. Use all the available pricing information - not just from 1 source. Also try to add the population information - again from all the sources you can find - for all of the coins and grades thereof you examine. And I don't just mean the pop reports from NGC & PCGS. I'll even help you if you'd like.

 

But once you have all this info combined - don't be surprised at what you might find out.

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