PCGS/NGC and the bubble mentality

[gmarguli]

And your statement doesn't prove that there are a lot of high grade coins to be found. If anything - I'd say it lends credence to what I have been saying. How many others like you do you think there are that have conducted this same search ? They aren't finding them either. So if it was easy to find these high grade coins - somebody would find them.

 

Given what I sold the coin for, I'll be looking for more. It wasn't worth searching thru them a few years ago to get a few dollars for a nice one. Now, the prices are MUCH higher and it is worth it to search for them. The downside is that with others searching for them, the pops will go up and the prices will go down.

 

 

Sounds amazingly like what I've been saying - that collectors are not keeping the high grade examples of these coins - because they are not worth it. And I agree completely - they aren't - today. But 50 years from now - will that still be true ?

 

It's not the same as what you are saying. The coins ARE out there, but they are ignored because they aren't worth any money. The mint sets are still intact and so are the rolls. It's just that no one is currently willing to take the time to search them for nice coins.

 

Why should I spend $1000 on rolls of Roosevelts and spend a month looking thru them so I can find a couple of MS67s that will bring me $20 when I sell them? I could go panhandle and make more money. When those coins start selling for $500, then I'll start looking thru the rolls - as others will also - and you'll see the pops slowly creep up.

 

As for 50 years from now, I don't care how rare they are. 50 years from now I'll likely be dead or at the very least I'll be yelling at the young whippersnappers to get off my lawn.

 

I don't debate that SOME modern coins will be rare in high grades. However, which ones it will be is unknown and I wouldn't call it a good bet to try and predict which one it will be.

 

Collect what you like. If it gives you a thrill to spend $1000 on a modern MS67, then go for it. Just understand that it highly likely won't be a good investment and the odds of you selling that coin in the future for more than you paid are extremely slim.

 

[cladking]

There are rolls still around for the cent, nickel, half, and dollars. Some of these are a little tough but they are out there and there are some gems in them. The clad dime and quarter rolls are very hard to find because no one ever bothered to save them in the first place. The mint sets are not nearly so abundant as most observers assume. There are few people looking through them and there is still only a small demand for them, but large percentages of these have been destroyed over the years and a surprisingly small demand would make them appear elusive. While the current demand is small it has been growing exponentially for three years now.

 

Increasing supply isn't always a bad thing for a collectibles price. Look what happened to Morgans after all the government hoardes hit the market. Certainly populations of 5 or 10 are insufficient to support a mass market.

 

Forget fifty years, some of these coins are rare in high grade now! Some are quite elusive even in a nice attractive BU.

[BillJones]

I agree, Greg. Buy what you enjoy. This is a hobby, and making money is not the goal. I collect items like modern commemorative coins (only with gold pieces in them) with the realization that I will never get my money out of them. Heck, when I buy a coin for my collection profits are not the objective.

 

I'm more disciplined for the business, of course. I've got to buy those pieces with a short term profit in mind.

[Coinosaurus]

Still a big difference between classics and moderns. With moderns, there are TONS of Uncs for almost all dates. Sure, the percentage of 67s or even 65s might be small for a given date, but an attractive Unc set of Roosevelts or Franklins will ALWAYS be cheap. In the long run, true rarity will always win out over condition rarity. What's even worse is that this whole grade based bubble is based on really subjective opinions. Can anyone really consistently tell the difference between a 68 and a 69 coin? I doubt it, and it doesn't help that market forces will for sure constantly change the definitions and interpretations for the near future.

 

Now, I think a PR69 DCAM Kennedy or Franklin is a really cool coin, but there is no way I would want to put a lot of dough into collecting such things right now. I'll wait till the bubble goes poof and then maybe put together some of these sets.

[cladking]

None of the regular issue moderns are rare in unc, but there are some which are quite difficult to find. Only a few exist in really large quantities because people haven't collected them. There are many which don't appear in mint sets and mint sets are not nearly so numerous as you might think. Even among those which do exist in mint sets there are some which are usually tarnished &/or were very poorly made in the first place. If you want a nice attractive 1969-P quarter you'd better be prepared to put some energy into finding it. Not a gem mind you, just a nice attractive MS-63 or 64. These coins are almost universally either poorly made or tarnished. There were "no" rolls saved and probably 70% of the mnt sets have been destroyed over the years. It would take only a small demand to push up the price of a coin like this.

 

Don't bet too much on a true BU clad quarter set always being cheap.

[Tradedollarnut]

Don't bet too much on a true BU clad quarter set always being cheap.

 

Cladking: you had me up til that statement. I'll agree with you that the highest grade coins will be scarcer than demand, but I gotta disagree with you on this. Those coins all exist in bag quantity and in hundreds of thousands of mint sets - they will always be relatively cheap!

[jtryka]

As far as mint sets go, I have trouble believing that they are all gone, or even becoming scarce. I was at a show a month or two ago and bought an 81 MS to cut up for my SBA folder, and there were at least 2 dozen available and I talked the final guy down to $14, and I could take my pick of the bunch I had. And maybe if they are so scarce you could explain to me the price of the 87 set, which every Kennedy collector must have bought just to complete their set. Last I checked they were around $7. In fact, it seems the only place that mint sets are going up in price in on the home shopping channel. Now, don't misinterpret me, I am not suggesting that all these mint set coins are MS-67s, but come on! To say a BU clad quarter set will not always be cheap, is like saying, you may not be able to always buy limestone gravel cheap! The only thing that might make your wish come true is if the government of China decided to mandate post-1965 US coin collecting for all of its childred under age 18! The vast majority of clad coins (with the exception of Kennedys) were produced in such quantities that every man, woman and child in the US could have 3 or 4 of every date and mintmark! I'm getting a headache now, gotta eat dinner and see a movie.

 

PS-Here's a hot tip for you, internet stocks, typewriters and pogo sticks are all coming back, it's the future man! Buy now while they are cheap!

[cladking]

Some of these coins are quite elusive in MS-60. The 83-P for instance probably doesn't exist in quantities over about 80,000 in MS-60 or higher. This one coin alone could command substantial premiums if large numbers of people start collecting clad quarters. The 82-P is most likely even tougher though there are lots of AU's for this coin because of a series of Numis News articles in 1985. While unc 82-P's are hard to find they are typically extremely unattractive. They are struck by worn dies which were poorly set up and they have lots of marks. If collecting clads ever gets popular people will seek out well made coins no matter what grades they collect. This is because so many dates are so very ugly. There may be fewer than 15 or 20,000 attractive unc '82-P quarters. There are other dates which have corroded or been "used up" over the years. To assemble a nice looking set is not easy now and certainly won't get easier if large numbers of newbies start doing it.

 

You're right of course, that none of the regular issues is scarce in unc.

[cladking]

No. Mint sets are not all gone nor are they getting scarce. There has never been a lot of demand for these sets and there still isn't! People have not put together sets of modern coins and they are just starting to put A LITTLE demand on these sets. But, vast quantities of them have been disassembled. Some dates that's only 25 % but for others it's 70%! If they are largely gone with tiny demand what will happen if the demand continues to grow? What if the demand actually becomes substantial? There are no quarter rolls to fall back on. There are people who collect mint sets and won't give them up unless the price is far higher. Many of these coins from the mint sets have been unceremoniously dumped into circulation by someone who wanted only the dollar or the half.

 

 

[GDJMSP]

I agree Greg - there is no reason to search rolls of dimes - if what you plan to do is sell them now. But Roosevelt dimes are one of the most under-collected series there is. And for that reason in the future high grade examples will be even harder to find.

 

As for paying outrageous prices for these coins in order to add them to one's collection - I too am against that. I never suggested anybody should do such a thing. What I have been talking about is finding high grade examples either in Mint Sets or rolls and adding them to one's collection. And you are no doubt correct - 50 years from now I will undoubtably be long gone - but my collection probably won't be as my young son is also a collector and mine will be his.

 

Everything I have talked about in this thread is in regard to the future - not today.

[GDJMSP]

I could not agree with you more Bill - collect what you like. And no - profits are not the primary incentive. But they are an incentive nonetheless. I find it hard to believe that any collector does not at least consider the value of his/her collection at any given time.

 

But to be quite honest - when I talk about searching for high grade examples of modern coins and adding them to one's collection - there is another reason for doing so other than profits. It is to assemble a fine collection for the future. And if that is the goal - what better time is there to find these high grade examples than when they are current issues ? Is that not why we have high grade examples of classic coins today ? Because somebody had the foresight to collect them and preserve them ?

 

Think about it - 100 or 200 years ago - if no one had stopped to collect and preserve high grade examples of bust halves or seated liberty coins - would any of the classic collectors in this forum today be able to add those coins to their collections ? No - they would not. For those coins would be gone.

 

That is the reason to search out and find these modern coins in high grade examples - for the collections of the future - not for ours. But if they do not first become a part of our collections today - they will definitely not be a part of anyone's collection tomorrow.