Another sign of a strong market...

[jtryka]

As if we needed another sign with all the discussion of that toned commem, etc. etc. but I did an interesting experiment the other day. I keep a list of my slabbed coins and for values I just use the PCGS price guide as it's the easiest. Well, everyone knows that their guide is often wildly over-optimistic (that's a polite way to put it), so I decided to look at a few dealers websites and see what they were asking for various Saints in my collection and imagine my surprise when I found their asking prices to be HIGHER than the PCGS wish list! Here are some examples:

 

1907 NM MS-63: PCGS $875, one dealer was at $875, and one was at $925

1909 MS-62: PCGS $1025, one dealer at $1150 another at $1370

1909-S MS-63: PCGS $750, one dealer at $785, another at $800

1910 MS-63: PCGS $700, one dealer at $725, another at $760

1911-D MS-65: PCGS $1550, one dealer at $1575 another at $1710

1914-S MS-63: PCGS $775, two dealers at $785

 

On the other side, PCGS was still about $75 per coin high on the extremely common dates in MS-64 (p-mints from the 1920s). Now I know this is a biased example since they are more affected by gold prices, but let's be honest, gold hasn't been moving a lot in percentage terms over the last few months, plus I talked to a number of gold dealers at Portland, and most said their bullion buyers are not buying double eagles instead continuing to buy American eagles and maple leaf coins. And none of these coins are rare in any sense, in fact some are quite common. This is but one set of data on one series, so there may be many others that still list PCGS prices as fantasy, but I think it's another interesting factor showing the strength of this market.

[EVillageProwler]

Jeff,

 

I think it's better if you keyed your research on the BUY side of mainstream dealers. *That* would be a better indicator of the strength of the market.

 

EVP

[jom]

Jeff,

 

I think it's better if you keyed your research on the BUY side of mainstream dealers. *That* would be a better indicator of the strength of the market.

 

EVP

 

Unfortunately, much of that data is non-existant. What...you think a dealer is going to tell ME what they sold a coin for?

 

Now...if you aren't talking about dealers but AUCTIONS. Then, I can see getting useful data.

 

jom

[EVillageProwler]

You can always offer your coins to dealers and see what kind of interest they generate.

 

EVP

[reid1836]

You have a valid point about researching auctions. In my opinion, the collector and not the dealer is what drives the coin market. If collectors are not willing to pay the price asked. Over a period of time, without a sale. The price WILL fall. The flip side is if the coin is purchased rather quickly. Then the next one of the same type and grade will have a higher asking price ect , ect, ect.

I have to agree that the current market is very strong. I suspect it will last at least until the end of the decade.

[EVillageProwler]

In my opinion, the collector and not the dealer is what drives the coin market. If collectors are not willing to pay the price asked.

 

I don't wish to turn this into a collector vs dealer thread, because I think both parties are important ingredients in the overall flavor of the coin market.

 

What I am trying to say is that we ought not look at the BUY side of the equation, because that is an indicator of the confidence of things to come. The SELL side is an indicator of what has been. And, I suggested looking at the eagerness of dealers' buying habits because dealers tend to have a broader and deeper view of the industry. One reason to believe the above statement is simply that dealers tend to be immersed in the biz full-time, but the typical collector spends far less time in the biz.

 

It's sort of like expecting a coterie of high school or college hackers to know the latest in IT trends as well as senior IT managers and professional programmers. Hardly realistic...

 

EVP

[LucyBop]

I don't wish to turn this into a collector vs dealer thread,

 

I'll take on any ol Grumpy dealer......

 

and slap em silly!!!!!

 

five minutes with the Kitty, and your toast Daddy-o!

 

Better watch those Frankies!

[jtryka]

EVP and others, I agree that dealers retail ask prices my not represent what they would offer to buy coins, that is not in dispute, nor does it directly relate to my point, which is that the PCGS pricing used to reflect valuation well beyond the dealer retail asking prices, but now it does not. I believe it's because PCGS hasn't updated their pricing as fast as the market has moved.

 

As for auctions, I agree to a point, however lately as evidenced by Heritage's pitiful Saint selection at Portland, it's hard to get up to date pricing. For example, take the 1909 in MS-62, I showed that PCGS listed it as $1025, and the dealers were at $1150 and $1370, but the last one Heritage sold was January 12, and it realized $1063.75, still more than PCGS and that price is now 3 months old! There was an 11-D in MS-65 that Heritage sold in Portland that realized $1552.50, which is just a little higher than PCGS.

 

We could even try some better dates with the Heritage archives (the dealers I checked had very few offered). How about a 13-S in MS-61, PCGS listed it as $1400, but the last one in that grade Heritage sold was in September realizing $1610. Or a 16-S in MS-65, one sold in Portland for $2875, but PCGS is at $2750. Or a 22-S in MS-62, PCGS lists it as $1150, which I know is a lot less than what I paid a few weeks ago, and less than the $1380 that Heritage relized in March 2003 (over a year ago). A 24-S in MS-62 is listed at $3000 on PCGS, but Heritage sold one in January for $3392.50! So it's not just that I happened upon some high-priced dealers, this is a realistic protrayal, whether you look at retail or auction pricing. Bottom line, I think the PCGS prices used to be freakishly high so they wouldn't have to update it often, or at least not until prices rose significantly. Well, now those prices have risen, and they are still rising, making the slow updates more obvious to the casual observer.

[chinook]

Jeff, just because the dealers are asking those prices doesn't mean they are getting it. Last month I had 2-1914-s saints NGC ms-63 on ebay. My reserve was 595, but I ended up selling them for 580 each to the high bidder. And on Monday night I had a 1908 No motto NGC ms-63 sell for 585. These prices are at least $50 less than they were selling for in January when gold was at similiar levels.

 

Certainly there are segments that are on fire, but generic gold-from my experience-is cold.

[jtryka]

Well, again, I pointed to the generic dates in my post above that were selling for less, so indeed not all areas of the market are hot. As for your eBay experiences, there are many factors that can affect the outcome on eBay, and ending auctions on a Monday night is probably a big one. I just sold an 88-S lib in AU for $551 last Sunday, so my guess is that you might be hitting the low bid on eBay. As for your 14-S, well you may have done worse than 3 months ago, but $580 is a heck of a lot better than the $400 I was paying in 2002, and gold is only up about $120 since then. I am merely pointing to the fact that not too long ago, if you pointed to PCGS price listing it would evoke laughter, but now those prices aren't as far off as they used to be, at least as far as Saints go. But as your post shows, even in rising markets, there are still bargains out there.

[chinook]

Jeff,

 

Next week I am going to put a 15-s in NGC 64 on Ebay and I'll end it on a Sunday night. We will see if that does much better. I hope so

[Count_Erfit]

IMO....the "strength" of this market is being driven by eBay which is expanding the ...base.. of both collectors and dealers. And "dealers." This thins the supply concentration (on ..scarce..coins) and expands the hands that hold them.

Combining a "closer to retail" market spread and offering sellers an easy way to sell directly to other collectors.

I....think....."moderns" are the last holdout of dealers who "promote" coins. But scarce coins which used to be easily controlled by a few very well capitalized dealers are now spreading out and are probably going into more permanent hands.

I just sold a nice uncirculated early gold and the buyer is a collector who is purchasing for his GRANDKIDS! (After he drools on em for a while longer)