Where do you see the hobby in 5 years?

[LucyBop]

I've often pondered this...

 

What in your opinion will things be like?

 

Will there be a crash?

 

Will professional grading run out of steam?

 

Will the hobby grow by leaps and bounds?

 

I'm curious to everybodys thoughts on this... set the clock to the year 2009...

 

what will things be like?

[cladking]

Excellent question. I'd rather answer where it'll be in eight or ten years though. Today is a prelude to some dramatic changes in the hobby. The future is being written now but so many things are very much up in the air. Some of the current trends are likely to continue and accelerate. This will be especially true for the core of the hobby. The millions of returning collectors will be much more sophisticated in five years. They'll be demanding as much as possible for their money and probably collecting the same and similar coins. This means further expansion for things like buffalos, indians, and other 19th and 20th century coins. There will be some broadening of interests but probably not as much as among the many more millions of newbies the hobby must find and retain to be the next generation of collectors. These people will almost certainly expand more and more into varieties. This will be especially true to the degree they stay in moderns. The trend toward the finest possible grades will have probably run its course but it's a virtual certainty that this will remain at least a niche market after the mainstream moves on. Most high grades will go out with more of a whimper than a bang. This may foreshadow even greater interest in choice and near gem coins though.

 

There will probably already have been a significant correction by that time. It will surprise many both in the coins which are most affected and the mildness of the correction. The coins which will drop will be coins which have seen the most speculation in the next few years. There is relatively little speculation in any coins at this point in time but as profits rise greed will set in and some coins will go too high.

 

I see Coin World with a publication of over 150,000. The on-line forums will be far more active and there will be more of them with more targeted users. Those which cater to broader audiences will simply segment them more. The ANA will be somewhat stronger and most hobby institutions will be revitalized. There will be a few more coin shops. There will be a lot more web sites and on-line dealers and these will all be more interconnected with some super sites that can find the latest discussion of VF+ 1857 cents or take you somewhere to buy a 1967 Celanese Carpets medal.

 

Grading services will likely be similar but there will be encroachment of computer assisted grading and they will be in a state of flux with trying to adapt the newer technology before the competition becomes too strong.

 

...and there is one certainty. If this server survives and this post is accessable it will provide many more collectors with a much better laugh than anyone is having today.

[spy88]

cladking, I am simply amazed at your prognostications for the next 5 years! Positively outstanding, sir! And I concur with every word of it. Are you in any way related to Nostradamus?

 

I especially find interest in your reference to "CAG" (computer-assisted/aided grading). I firmly believe this would without a doubt, be the best thing for numismatics. The TPGC's that invest in the technology as it becomes available (I think it already is) will be the ones to benefit from a "no question about it" grade. Proofs would especially garner the most attention from CAG. What is gem, cam, or U/DCam would be put to rest. I'm sure there are many who would disagree with me but... . How can you argue with lasers, scanning electron microscopes and computer programs overseeing both? The problem will be in the initial standard for CAG to compare coins to. There, I haven't a clue.

 

Excellent thread Lucy! Wish I could have been as insightful as cladking, but he really did cover just about everything I might have thought of and some I never would have thought of!

 

David;)

 

P.S. You did forget to mention that my favorite coin will be back in circ that year (as it now stands anyway). Good old MS FS Jeffs for me!

 

If this server survives and this post is accessable, it will provide many more collectors with a much better laugh then anyone is having today.

DITTO

[reid1836]

I `d have to say the hobby will be in a Lincoln cent FRENZY !

[sanmary]

I think collectors will learn to grade more "on their own" to support their buying decisions after all of their 'top-pop" bubbles burst. When news reaches the masses that a person paid thousands of dollars for a coin that cannot be sold for a few hundred dollars...eyes will open. This will be good for our hobby.

[LucyBop]

One thing I betcha will happen is their will be many more collectors....

 

 

The State Quarters has already brought many new folks, the New Nickel will help...

 

and lets see if the Dollar coin proposals come to pass.....

 

I believe new designs are great and they peak interest..........

[TomB]

This is an excellent question!

 

In 2009, we'll see a new cent design, and Lincoln cents will explode. Illinois legislators may try a Virginia tactic and introduce legislation designed to stagnate our coinage and perpetuate their state.

 

The State Quarter series will be issuing quarters for Guam, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, the Phillipines (in retrospect) and Washington, DC. These will be a huge hit.

 

Most likely more collectors than in earlier periods will not know how to grade, nor will they know what to look for to spot a cleaned or otherwise abused coin. This is because the TPG services have taken much of the homework out of coins.

[LucyBop]

[quoteThis is because the TPG services have taken much of the homework out of coins.

]

 

The reverse can happen also, because people buy graded coins, they may learn to grade based on all the coins they buy and see.....

 

What really is the difference between buy a raw coin marked MS65 as opposed to a certified ms65 in terms of buying coins while learning to grade?

 

One would hope the certified coin is accurate.....

 

People can learn alot from certified coins.....

[Aethelred]

A great question by Lucy and reply by Sam.

 

In 2009 the first of the new Zip Code Quarter series will be issued.

 

In 2009 every person will own their own grading service and every coin will be a 70!

 

In 2009 the Mint will issue the last US Cents for circulation, they will be Wheat Cents like the 1909.

 

By 2009 some service will decide that 70 is not a high enough grade and slab something a 71.

 

In 2009 ACG will still be putting out [!@#%^&^], cheating people and filing suit against anyone who speaks out!

 

As in 1989 and 1999, we will still be talking about which of the "big two" is the best grading service.