Is the Modern Coin Market getting it's second wind ?

[currentcoin]

Last night on ebay a 1970-D Roosevelt MS65FB brought $400.

An MS65, that is a dog of a coin, for a dime.

Will this early spring fever continue for moderns?

Or is this the last freak in the Registry side show?

 

Glen

[braddick]

One or two freakish purchases doth not a Modern Market make.

[gmarguli]

I don't think so. The modern market had been dead for a while from what I have seen. Sure, top pop coins still bring stupid money, but that is only because there are a few people still looking to move up in the registry due to ego and not quality. And that stupid money isn't as stupid as it used to be.

 

With the modern grade inflation and the inability to add real designations, the registry is kind of at a stalling point. Who wants to play unless you can win?

[BillJones]

I guess my warnings to new collectors about the excessively high prices for some modern coins have been vindicated.

 

I took the heat, but it if I saved a few new collectors from losing their shirts and leaving the hobby it was worth it.

[cladking]

Fortunately the modern markets are not dependent on the encouragement of modern bashers to hold steady or to increase. If there is anyone left who believes that the bashers have ever won a single point in their relentless bashing of anything modern then you should ask them how it is that a common or a rare classic always brings a premium in the highest grade but moderns are mere pocket change in any grade. Ask them what they personally gain by slamming these coins and those who collect and grade them. Ask them if they ever considered the possibility that their relentless attacks have driven off far more newbies than some potential collapse of these markets ever could.

 

They can continue their bashing until the sun grows dim and it won't change the fact that many people are having a lot of fun with these coins. It will not change the fact that some of thes are rare coins and that most all are rare in some grade. It won't change anything about the coins or their collectors but it certainly says something about those who are compelled to bash.

[jtryka]

Clad,

 

I am not going to bash you, or the modern market, but I have a simple question for you, and would appreciate a simple answer:

 

Do you have any conflicts of interest in this matter, in other words, do you have anything to gain from relentlessly promoting moderns?

 

Just curious since you brought the topic up when you said, "Ask them what they personally gain by slamming these coins and those who collect and grade them." I can answer, and say that I really don't have many moderns outside my personal collection of raw coins in whitman/dansco albums. Nor do I benefit be bashing moderns, as that market has little relationship to my main collecting interests (i.e. if I bash state quarters I don't expect people to stop collecting them and start buying Saints). Thanks in advance for your response.

 

[cladking]

I've made no secret of the fact that I consider these coins grossly underappreciated and do have a stake in them. It would be foolish to believe that there are rare coins available on the market for very nominal cost and to not acquire the pieces.

 

While my initial forays into these markets 32 years ago were primarily for investment reasons I have grown to appreciate these coins over the years. I now have several collections of them and work on them actively. While I've yet to slab my collections or the duplicates, I expect to at some point in the future. The duplicates will be slabbed to make them more marketable and some of the collections will be slabbed to compete in the registries.

 

I have always given this information when asked and volunteered it when it seemed relevant.

 

I personally do not consider this a conflict of interest. Please note that I rarely ever come into a thread of any sort to tout moderns. I am happy to share any information I've learned over the years and will vigorously defend the coins against unwarranted attack.

[TomB]

Do you have any conflicts of interest in this matter, in other words, do you have anything to gain from relentlessly promoting moderns?

 

I don't have a stake in the clad market, nor do I know cladking, however, I don't think I have ever really seen cladking "relentlessly promoting moderns". To me, this is a gross mischaracterization. What I see is that there will be a post critical of moderns and then cladking will jump in to defend this niche market. Some of the defense is based on bid numbers, some of it on anecdotal tales of difficulty and some of it on passion. This is no different, in my view, than when I, or someone else, defends some aspect of the toned coin market in response to a post or statement that I, or someone else, views as flawed. Perhaps I am somewhat sensitive to this issue as I have been accused, wrongly, in the past of trying to overplay toning simply to move inventory.

[Dry]

"While my initial forays into these markets 32 years ago "

 

[EVillageProwler]

I agree w/ TomB re Cladking. I see him as a passionate defender of what he sees as a valid market segment. Unlike some others whose names I ought not share lest I dilute this message, I don't recall ever seeing a post by Clad that was an "affirmative" promotion.

 

EVP

 

[DonHeath]

Glen,

 

The registry coins are still in play, but unlike others who see the modern market cooling, I'd characterize it as maturing. As the population report/census becomes better populated, the common coins that once sold for large premiums have softened. I think that's natural, and I also think it was necessary for those relatively common coins to become expensive enough to warrant submission to determine their relative worth. The great thing about the interest in this segment has been the gradual realization that there are some coins that remain difficult. Many of the clads now routinely sell for 2x-5x the holder fee in under-grades. I'd say the segment is finally settling down and taking it's rightful place in the hobby. When you strip away all the rhetoric, they're coins just like all their predecessors, and many collectors like them. I'm glad the community is learning their relative worth. I doubt they'll go away. The collectors will just be better educated and discriminate.

[gmarguli]

As the population report/census becomes better populated, the common coins that once sold for large premiums have softened. I think that's natural, and I also think it was necessary for those relatively common coins to become expensive enough to warrant submission to determine their relative worth.

 

One problem with the modern market is that there are VERY few "rare" coins in gem grade. I'm not talking about the wonder grade coins, but just the high gem grade coins that serious collectors would want. I've made several pop 1, 2, 3 coins over the years. Many of those are now pop 5, 10, 50. The undergrade pops have also exploded. In many cases you can't recover your costs to make an undergrade anymore. I remember shooting for one grade and knowing that if it only made the undergrade I'd still double my money. Now I have to look at it as a 50% on my investment.

[DonHeath]

Greg, you're right. It's a small handful. 72-P Ikes, Ucam 65 SMS coins, early 50's Ucams, and a few others. I guess that's what I was getting at. The market is getting smarter, and becoming aware of the difficult coins. I think that's pretty natural as the submitters have made the other coins readily available in good holders. My only criticism of most of the anti-modern posts I read is that they frequently generalize and throw the baby out with the bathwater. There are some truly special moderns, just not all of them. As the market matures, the special ones continue to become more obvious to the general community.

[BillJones]

Fortunately the modern markets are not dependent on the encouragement of modern bashers to hold steady or to increase. If there is anyone left who believes that the bashers have ever won a single point in their relentless bashing of anything modern then you should ask them how it is that a common or a rare classic always brings a premium in the highest grade but moderns are mere pocket change in any grade. Ask them what they personally gain by slamming these coins and those who collect and grade them. Ask them if they ever considered the possibility that their relentless attacks have driven off far more newbies than some potential collapse of these markets ever could.

 

They can continue their bashing until the sun grows dim and it won't change the fact that many people are having a lot of fun with these coins. It will not change the fact that some of thes are rare coins and that most all are rare in some grade. It won't change anything about the coins or their collectors but it certainly says something about those who are compelled to bash.

 

 

Clad, you just don't realize how much damage you do to your position when you go on these tirades. I could almost feel sorry for you if you weren’t so nasty about it and didn’t constantly distort my position.

 

A couple of days ago you gave a very articulate answer to a question across the street from a collector who asking about the value of quarters from the late 1960s in MS-66. It was so down to earth and informative, that I almost posted a “that a boy” after I read it.

 

Then I comment that recent developments in the modern market vindicate what I have written earlier, namely that high grade modern coins are not worth many thousands of dollars in most cases. I never said that they were not worth a few hundred percent more in premiums over run-of-the-mill Mint State pieces. And I never wrote they were not collectable or a waste of collectors’ time. Yet every time I write any thing about this subject that doesn’t agree with your opinion you go off the deep end.

 

Give it a rest, man. You go a long way toward making your case when you present reasoned, informed responses. You really ought to get the “modern basher” phrase out of your vocabulary. It’s a distortion, and not doing your cause any good.

 

[cladking]

I guess my warnings to new collectors about the excessively high prices for some modern coins have been vindicated.

 

I took the heat, but it if I saved a few new collectors from losing their shirts and leaving the hobby it was worth it.

 

Well, it's not as though you don't make statements which are concise, to the point, and quite accurate. These are not in that category and could be torn apart on many levels.

[jom]

Good post, Bill. I agree with a lot of what Clad says but sometimes he comes up with blanket statements such as:

 

"The number of people collecting these now are growing everyday"

 

OR

 

"Many people are having fun collecting....

 

OR

 

"Newbies are collecting moderns in droves.."

 

These types of statements ring of hyperbole more than anything.

 

My personal problem with the grade-related rarites doesn't come from just moderns. There are many examples of "classic" coins with these huge jumps in price. It is just that this tendency happens more in 20th Century coinage more than the earlier issues....

 

To me paying 30x for a coin with one grade jump is idiotic regardless of whether it's a Bust Half or State Quarter.

 

jom

[cladking]

 

My personal problem with the grade-related rarites doesn't come from just moderns. There are many examples of "classic" coins with these huge jumps in price. It is just that this tendency happens more in 20th Century coinage more than the earlier issues....

 

To me paying 30x for a coin with one grade jump is idiotic regardless of whether it's a Bust Half or State Quarter.

 

jom

 

This tendency is more common in moderns simply because more moderns are very common in the undergrades. This really can be of benefit to the collector also since it allows the opportunity to obtain a specimen of nearly as good of quality as the pop-tops for much less money. Those who demand the best will pay more whether the undergrades are common or scarce.

 

As you stated these considerations apply whether one is buying a classic or a modern.

[Leothelion]

I want to make one thing perfectly clear, I am not a MODERN COIN BASHER.

 

Leo

[jtryka]

I've made no secret of the fact that I consider these coins grossly underappreciated and do have a stake in them. It would be foolish to believe that there are rare coins available on the market for very nominal cost and to not acquire the pieces.

 

While my initial forays into these markets 32 years ago were primarily for investment reasons I have grown to appreciate these coins over the years. I now have several collections of them and work on them actively. While I've yet to slab my collections or the duplicates, I expect to at some point in the future. The duplicates will be slabbed to make them more marketable and some of the collections will be slabbed to compete in the registries.

 

I have always given this information when asked and volunteered it when it seemed relevant.

 

I personally do not consider this a conflict of interest. Please note that I rarely ever come into a thread of any sort to tout moderns. I am happy to share any information I've learned over the years and will vigorously defend the coins against unwarranted attack.

 

Thank you for your reply Clad, I appreciate it.

 

And before TomB and EVP tried to rip me a new one, let it be known, my wording might have been inaccurate re: "relentlessly promoting moderns" but my motivation on this question was sincere. I really don't know much about Clad, other than that he likes moderns. He could be a dealer making a living selling moderns for all I knew, and I just wanted to understand his position and potential conflicts of interest in this matter. I guess to some that might mean I am impugning Clad's honor, but to me it's just a simple question. Unlike some people on this board in other professions, I work in an industry where disclosure of potential conflicts of interest are required by law, so it's naturally an important issue to me. Clad, if the wording of my post offended you, I apologize. For the others that question my motivations on asking such questions, sorry, I'll try not to do it again.

[EVillageProwler]

This is OT, but can someone please explain the etymology of the expression "ripping a new hole"...

 

EVP

 

[LucyBop]

who has my tequila?

[Beijim]

"The number of people collecting these now are growing everyday"

 

OR

 

"Many people are having fun collecting....

 

OR

 

"Newbies are collecting moderns in droves.."

 

These types of statements ring of hyperbole more than anything.

 

They remind me of The Coin Vault.

 

Beijim

[cladking]

"The number of people collecting these now are growing everyday"

 

OR

 

"Many people are having fun collecting....

 

OR

 

"Newbies are collecting moderns in droves.."

 

These types of statements ring of hyperbole more than anything.

 

They remind me of The Coin Vault.

 

Beijim

 

I love hyperbole. Exaggeration is the greatest thing that ever came down the pike. Where do you think these guys get their material?

 

Not all these statements are over-blown clap trap even when they are presented that way.