Strange effects of the coin market.

[truthteller]

Well, I attended 4 days of the Long Beach show and came away a bit puzzled. Many coins I offered sold well on Wednesday and Thursday morning. I saw quite a bit of public on Thursday and was quite impressed. However, Friday and Saturday were an absolute turnaround. Most dealers passed on coins that were flying out of my coinbox the day before. In addition, many dealers left very, very early on Saturday, some by 12 noon, many by 2PM. I chatted with several dealers Saturday and some dealers who are active marketers remarked that there was a definitely cooldown from the FUN show. This statement was weird. Any obvservations or remarks? I know that some dealers say that this is the beginning of a bull market cycle, but frankly, I have heard this before, only to see the cycle begin a downturn shortly afterward. Is caution the best strategy?

 

 

TRUTH

[cladking]

Caution is almost always the best strategy with investments and this is doubly so in coins since they generally are not a good place to park money for the sole purpose of gain. Like all collectibles (and other investments) they are at the whim of sentiment that can turn on a dime.

 

There can be a regional flavor to the market and a lot of the big players were tapped out from FUN so it's too early to look for a turn around or rotation.

 

 

[TomB]

It's tough to tell from one show. However, you may want to keep in mind that the Baltimore show was relatively late this year, it was in the first and second week of December, and then Long Beach was almost immediately after FUN. So, within the space of seven weeks you had Baltimore-FUN-Long Beach and all the auctions that accompany them.

[Tradedollarnut]

Dealers were running on fumes from FUN.

[gmarguli]

The market is HOT, HOT, HOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. Well, maybe....

 

One thing I noticed at FUN was a lot of dealers were buyers, but not sellers. Yes, dealers are reporting strong collector sales, but I'm not too sure. However, many of the dealers I spoke with were buying and holding. Several dealers purchased coins and when I asked about them I was told they were going to hold them for a while. When I inquired if they were purchased for their want lists or inventory, they intimated that they were purchased to hold since the market is going up. To me that is a sure sign the market is going down.

 

Also saw lots of novices buying GOLD. You know, the gold that will be at $500/oz in a month and $1,000 by the end of the year after the US dollar becomes worthless. I was actually shocked by the number of clearly non-collectors looking to buy gold. Again, a sure sign that gold is going down.

 

Now flash forward to Long Beach. A record number of people according to the people who run the show. Where were these people? Thursday was pretty solid with people. I heard Friday was dead. Saturday wasn't exactly hot, hot, hot. Given the number of dealers that were packing up when I got there at 10:15 on Saturday I have to imagine that Sunday was completely dead.

 

I asked a few dealers about how the show was going on Thursday. They were NOT excited. One dealer who later changed his story told me that business was NOT good at all.

 

The overall quality of material was pretty good at this show. Monsters and top tier coins were not available in quantity, but nice high grade stuff was. For the most part a lot of this stuff remained on Saturday. Was it priced too high or was the demand not there? I didn't price many, but dealers did seem somewhat quick to discount.

 

The grading services did seem to be jammed. Someone told me that PCGS was taking 3 days for their 1 day service and NGC took 2 days for theirs.

[TJ]

IMHO, there's too many damn Long Beach shows a year. There should be two max. And I read they're eliminating Sundays. Finally! Duh.

 

Actually the people who organize these shows seem to be asleep at the wheel. Perhaps a different organizer/producer is in order. Someone with some savvy.

[Oldtrader3]

Most Saints have taken a pretty healthy jump in price lately (i.e MS64, 1910-S Saints at $2700 vs. $1900 6 months ago). This is in addition to healthy increases over the previous two years (MS64, 1910-S Saints were $1100 in 2001). It would not surprise me if this latest jump does not cool the US Gold market for awhile.