Low Mintage on the 5¢ & 10¢ this year!!

[Schatzy]

U.S. Mint ends 2009 5¢, dime production

A precipitous drop in Federal Reserve orders for circulating coinage prompted the U.S. Mint to announce April 23 that no more Jefferson 5-cent coins and Roosevelt dimes will be struck at either the Denver or Philadelphia Mints for the remainder of calendar year 2009 for circulation.

 

 

According to the US mint website

Production Figures Jan 09 thru March 09

Jefferson Nickel P = 36.00M D = 33.36M Total = 69.36M

Roosevelt Dimes P = 78.50M D = 41.50M Total = 120.0M

 

2008 Production Totals

Jefferson Nickel P = 287.76M D = 352.80M Total = 640.56M

Roosevelt Dimes P = 413.00M D = 637.50M Total = 1050.50M

 

 

[Just Bob]

Instant rarities!

 

 

 

Seriously, though, with a mintage that low, compared to previous years, the '09s are likely to be key dates in the future.

[Schatzy]

The production was still in the millions but that is really low from last year!!

 

I try getting the 2009 dime rolls and I cant seem to find them anywhere!!

[Revenant]

This is going to be a very strange year...

[BillJones]

Seriously, though, with a mintage that low, compared to previous years, the '09s are likely to be key dates in the future.

 

Key dates in the future?

 

With mintages in the tens of millions, you guys must be listening “The Lullaby of Bird Land.”

 

When it comes to "rare dates" in most modern series, I just don't get it.

[physics-fan3.14]

I'm with Bill on this one. I just don't get how 120 MILLION can be considered a low mintage or a key date or whatever. The entire Bust Half series for the 30 years it was minted has a combined mintage of far less than that, and that was when they were fresh off the presses! How many of those have survived?

[TJ'S Coins]

What I fear is that this is another sign of a stagnant or declining economy. The demand for new coins simply is not there. This is one reason why it is difficult, if not impossible, to find circulating 2009 Lincoln cents. The Federal Reserve and Banks are saturated with coins. Additional production is not needed at this time.

 

Something like this was seen in the Great Depression when there was no production of Walking Liberty Halves from 1930-1932.

 

Where this will end, I do not know. Like many of you, I cannot see a situation when hundred of millions of coins produced will be scarce or rare. Harder to find in circulation, perhaps, but not numismatically significant.

[Didz]

I think you have to realize that 100 years ago the number of coins versus population was no where near what it is today. Sure.. the numbers seem very low for some coins 100+ years ago, but the population and demand was probably 100 times less percentage wise then it is today. So, 2009 with its unusual numbers and lower than normal mintage... In 50 years when the population is probably going to be 3 times what it is now, will be a rare/key date. Why? Because its probably safe to say the demand and the number of collectors will be 3 to 5 times higher as well in 50 years. Just a thought.. Could be wrong.

[Just Bob]

Seriously, though, with a mintage that low, compared to previous years, the '09s are likely to be key dates in the future.

 

Key dates in the future?

 

With mintages in the tens of millions, you guys must be listening “The Lullaby of Bird Land.”

 

When it comes to "rare dates" in most modern series, I just don't get it.

 

 

I'm with Bill on this one. I just don't get how 120 MILLION can be considered a low mintage or a key date or whatever.

 

 

I thought that the wink smiley in my post would convey the message that I really don't consider these rare, but I guess I was wrong.

 

Maybe "key" is the wrong word, but as a general rule, the lowest mintage coin in a given series is normally sold for more than the other coins in a series, and aside from the 1996 W dime, which was only released in mint sets, this years mintage will be the lowest of the clad dimes. If it follows the pattern of the 1950 D nickel or the 1996 Silver Eagle Dollar, then it will likely bring a premium, however small, in the future.

 

Whether the mintage is one hundred, one million, or tens of millions, lowest is still lowest.

[WinstonWare]

It’s a solid observation. I was just reading in The Experts Guide to Collecting and Investing in Rare Coins by QDB that there was similar excitement after the mint made only 2,630,000 1950-D Jefferson nickels. It was “…the rarity of the future.” In the late 50’s the rolls sold for $15, in the 1964 they sold for $1,200 but the price later crashed to $400 and never recovered.

 

So if you do get into them, get out while they're still hot

[Conder101]

. In 50 years when the population is probably going to be 3 times what it is now, will be a rare/key date. Why? Because its probably safe to say the demand and the number of collectors will be 3 to 5 times higher as well in 50 years. Just a thought.. Could be wrong

You are probably right and in 50 years the number of really serious collectors will probably have doubled. So there will be two to three milion people chasing those 69 million nickels and 120 million dimes. And they will probably demand some kind of premium out of proportion to their availability simply because they are the lowest mintage. Just like the 50-D nickel. I has a good premium, but would anyone reallydescribe it as rare? Or even Scarce? If you decided you wanted one, how much trouble would you have finding it? Heck thow the SVDB or 31-S cent into the mix. MUCH lower mintages, in a series much more highly collected.. They were know to be low mintages when they were made and so were extensively hoarded. Are they scarce or rare? Maybe if you are roll searching, but other than that they are easy to come by. Yes the are costly, but they have mintages much closer to the number of collectors actually building the set. I don't think anyone would suggest there will be anywhere close to 69 million Jefereson nickel collectors in 50 years.

[RareSov]

I agree, it isn't a low mintage at all. Just lower than usual

 

For there to be any hope in the future 90+ % of the mintage would need to be heavily circulated

[cladking]

I'm with Bill on this one. I just don't get how 120 MILLION can be considered a low mintage or a key date or whatever. The entire Bust Half series for the 30 years it was minted has a combined mintage of far less than that, and that was when they were fresh off the presses! How many of those have survived?

 

It's a shame everyone doesn't think like most of the people here and these would become important scarce coins. Most people though are scrambling to lay in supplies of them and it is this fact that will probably assure that they are common in the future. If even a small percentage of the dimes are saved they'll be the most common clad dime available in unc. That's because there almost aren't any clad dimes available in unc.

 

I think the more important facet of this is that this will focus even more attention on the modern circulating clad (and other) coins and put even more stress on the meager supplies. The one thing a virtually nonexistent supply can't withstand is increasing demand.

[Didz]

I'm with Bill on this one. I just don't get how 120 MILLION can be considered a low mintage or a key date or whatever. The entire Bust Half series for the 30 years it was minted has a combined mintage of far less than that, and that was when they were fresh off the presses! How many of those have survived?

 

It's a shame everyone doesn't think like most of the people here and these would become important scarce coins. Most people though are scrambling to lay in supplies of them and it is this fact that will probably assure that they are common in the future. If even a small percentage of the dimes are saved they'll be the most common clad dime available in unc. That's because there almost aren't any clad dimes available in unc.

 

I think the more important facet of this is that this will focus even more attention on the modern circulating clad (and other) coins and put even more stress on the meager supplies. The one thing a virtually nonexistent supply can't withstand is increasing demand.

 

Example would be 2009 Dimes and Nickels

[cladking]

 

Example would be 2009 Dimes and Nickels

 

 

It's probably a matter of time until these are widely available. This isn't certain since it's possible very few have been issued and the balance could end up being destroyed as surplus to the needs of the economy. Our economy has been extremely consumer based for many decades and if this changes and electronic transfers continue making inroads on cash there might be a structurally reduced need for coin and these would be destroyed along with ten or twelve billion other dimes.

 

More likely these will filter into the market to satisfy the demand over the next couple of years and then the improving economy will see them turn up in the banks.

 

There could well be high prices but don't expect these to be valuable in the long term. If tghey are poorly made it would be extremely interesting to have a few gems set aside though.

[astrostu]

I don't think anyone's said it quite this way yet (long thread that I tried to read through but may have missed it) ... These are relative rarities. Relative when compared with the last few decades. Unless they will be in banks by the pristine roll (which I haven't seen with 5¢ nor 10¢), then I think being able to actually find these is going to be more difficult for the average collector.

 

For example, let's say that only coins from the last 10 years actually circulate. Combined 1999-2008 nickel production figures are ~14.509 BILLION coins. 2009 mintage is only 0.48% of that. In other words, if they're all mixed well, you would need to look through 210 nickels before you will find 1 2009-dated nickel.

 

For dimes, that would be 25.929 BILLION, where 2009 would represent only 0.46%, so you'd have to look through 216 to find 1 2009-dated example.

 

Personally, I try to look through a bank box of coins of each denomination once every 1-2 years. But I think for the casual collector, they will not do this, and so it is relatively unlikely that they will easily come across these coins.

[richbeat]

U.S. Mint ends 2009 5¢, dime production

A precipitous drop in Federal Reserve orders for circulating coinage prompted the U.S. Mint to announce April 23 that no more Jefferson 5-cent coins and Roosevelt dimes will be struck at either the Denver or Philadelphia Mints for the remainder of calendar year 2009 for circulation.

 

 

According to the US mint website

Production Figures Jan 09 thru March 09

Jefferson Nickel P = 36.00M D = 33.36M Total = 69.36M

Roosevelt Dimes P = 78.50M D = 41.50M Total = 120.0M

 

2008 Production Totals

Jefferson Nickel P = 287.76M D = 352.80M Total = 640.56M

Roosevelt Dimes P = 413.00M D = 637.50M Total = 1050.50M

 

 

 

And if it wasn't for the new cent designs and the DC and territories quarters, we probably wouldn't be seeing any more production of cents and quarters, either.

[astrostu]

Just thought I'd add that even though the 25¢ coins are also seeing "record low" individual mintages, the LOWEST total mintage (P+D) for the state quarter program was in 2003 with 2.28 billion coins. Before that, NO year had a combined mintage that HIGH, with 1995 being the closest at 2.11 billion.

 

If you look at individual numbers, then you have to go back to 1962 Philadelphia with a mintage of 37 million coins being the first mintage lower than the Phildelphia Puerto Rico coins (53 million).

[Didz]

I think its clear on the 2009 Dimes and Nickels. With production ending those are some low numbers. I have yet to see either of them.

[World Colonial]

Others on this board who collect US coins would know better than me and if I am incorrect on this opinion they can correct me.

 

From what I know, I do not believe that what you appear to assume to be GENERALLY correct. The population today in the United States is about 300 million. So even if we extrapolate these mintages to the rest of 2009, that would still be about 250 and 500 million respectively which is about one coin and two coins per capita.

 

There are plenty of dates with ratios that are equal to or less than that though I have not bothered to work it out exactly by date. But anyone could so by performing a look-up of the historical census data and comparing it to the mintage records.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that many (supposedly) low mintage dates were known at the time and the survival rates are high. Examples of this I believe are the 1931-S cent, the 1955-D quarter and the 1955 half with mintages of about 500,000 and 3 million. Neither of these coins are remotely scarce.

 

Of course, the survival rate of these (or any other) coins in premium grades is low or relatively but that is a more a function of the grade assigned by a third party service which makes this no different for these coins than most others.

[Oldtrader3]

Did the Mint project how many Kennedy's they will strike this year? Probably not many more than for mint and proof sets. Each year they strike fewer half dollars.

[World Colonial]

. In 50 years when the population is probably going to be 3 times what it is now, will be a rare/key date. Why? Because its probably safe to say the demand and the number of collectors will be 3 to 5 times higher as well in 50 years. Just a thought.. Could be wrong

You are probably right and in 50 years the number of really serious collectors will probably have doubled. So there will be two to three milion people chasing those 69 million nickels and 120 million dimes. And they will probably demand some kind of premium out of proportion to their availability simply because they are the lowest mintage. Just like the 50-D nickel. I has a good premium, but would anyone reallydescribe it as rare? Or even Scarce? If you decided you wanted one, how much trouble would you have finding it? Heck thow the SVDB or 31-S cent into the mix. MUCH lower mintages, in a series much more highly collected.. They were know to be low mintages when they were made and so were extensively hoarded. Are they scarce or rare? Maybe if you are roll searching, but other than that they are easy to come by. Yes the are costly, but they have mintages much closer to the number of collectors actually building the set. I don't think anyone would suggest there will be anywhere close to 69 million Jefereson nickel collectors in 50 years.

 

Its pure speculation but I think that many collectors are going to be surprised by what happens. I have attempted to address this a few times and my opinion is probably different than practically everyone else on this forum.

 

The primary change that I see is in the demographic composition in the population. There will be more minorities both in proportionate and in absolute terms in the United States. And though we cannot know how many of them will be coin collectors at all, my expectation is that many of these future collectors will show an interest in areas that are not of much interest to most US collectors today. That will be in world coins including their country of origin. Of course, many of these new collectors will still collect US coins but proportionately it should be less and of those who do, it will or could also not be their primary focus.

 

And if there is little to no increase in minority participation in numismatics, then the example you gave of 3 times as many serious collectors is unlikely to occur or at least occur absent other significant changes in people's interests. The change that would have to happen is a shift from other pursuits which consume discretionary income (or with more expensive coins, "investment" allocations). I would not count on that at least as a substantial shift.

 

As for a coin like the 1950-D nickel, it probably sells for the same or even LESS than it did in 1963 because it was the subject of price speculation around that time. My 1963 Red Book values it at $6.50 which is at least $33 in today's money. But you are absolutely correct that none of the examples you gave are remotely scarce. No, not even the 1909-S VDB cent. The NGC census alone lists THOUSANDS in mint state.

[astrostu]

Did the Mint project how many Kennedy's they will strike this year? Probably not many more than for mint and proof sets. Each year they strike fewer half dollars.

 

I'm working on compiling all the mintage data by year and mintmark for all coins. So far, I have done nickels, dimes, quarters, halves and dollars. The Kennedy mintage figures so far are in-line with previous years since 2002. In 2001, the Mint produced 40.7 million (P+D). But that was the transition year where the federal reserve stopped taking orders, and they started to only be released to collectors. Hence in 2002, the mintage dropped to 5.6 million. It has been slowly declining since, and this year's numbers that are released so-far match 2008's of 3.4 million (1.7 from each mint). So, while low, they are not relatively rare when compared with the last 8 years inclusive.

[CarlWohlforth]

I might stash away a BU roll of nickels. I am hoarding nickels in any case so I should have a BU roll of 2009s.

 

I think what is happening is people are dumping all their jars of coins into the coin star machines. Hard times means laid off people have to spend their savings even if their only savings are Lincoln cents in pickle jars. So all these old coins coming into circulation reduces the demand for new coins.

[World Colonial]

I believe this comment of yours to be entirely correct. A lot of coins are removed from circulation because they do not buy anything amymore and it is not worth the trouble to carry them around except to avoid receiving even more of them as change. I hardly pay for anything with cash anymore but when I receive change, I simply throw them in my drawer at home. I have one or two small bags of them sitting around somewhere that I have accumulated over the last few decades.

[Didz]

I rarely use cash either. To easy to spend. I have too many hobbies and too many toys. I just searched all my change and then hauled it in for some green backs. I actually use a lot of quarters washing my ride.. and pres $1 for my morning coffee.

[L1ncolnF4n]

I never keep coin on me. I toss everything i get into a cup and once a month or so take out $20+ in change to the bank and cash it to buy a nice dinner...