GoldFinger1969

On 4/18/2024 at 11:07 PM, powermad5000 said:

I have a hard time with the answer to this question being what do we define as a collector? Is not someone who bought a Whitman album when the statehood quarters were released and filled such said album as they were released, now having a full statehood quarter album not a collector even if they have collected no other coins? I think they would be considered a "casual" collector. It would be difficult to pin down a number on these people as they will never submit a single coin to a TPG, nor will they ever attend a coin show, but by technical definition are still a collector. You also have amateur collectors, experienced collectors, and advanced collectors. These would comprise a number that could possibly be pinned down through submissions (but not all collectors submit and I am sure there are still many collectors with extensive collections that are raw).  I would say there is a high percentage of casual collectors which outnumber greatly the amateur, experienced, and advanced combined. To me, it would be impossible to accurately assign a specific number to the posted question.

Excellent points. 

I agree:  we here on these Forums are certainly SERIOUS or ACTIVE collectors.  Most people might fall into the LAPSED or INACTIVE categories.

Probably less of a concern now with CACG but there are lots of stories about this in the affirmative.

I'll leave it to the vets here to discuss.

I'm not a gold bug either, HC....but if you look at all those charts I have posted in recent weeks, the supply-demand fundamentals look better at any time other than maybe 1971 or 2001.

EVERYTHING is lined up perfectly, and that's not giving any credit to a geopolitical adventure by Iran, Russia, or China.

I'm not prepared to give the super-bullish targers of $10,000 or other fanciful numbers I see thrown about....but I see $3,500 - $5,000 as right in the bullseye zone. 

On 3/5/2024 at 9:26 PM, RWB said:

EHR had 7 blows with annealing in between. HR had 3 blows with annealing in between. For both, annealing ended with a quick dip in dilute nitric acid to remove any "fire scale" (copper oxide) cause by heating. For both, this acid dip removed some of the surface copper. MCMVII HR did not lose enough copper to change their color much. MCMVII EHR patterns, however, were dipped 6 times - enough to remove nearly all surface copper. This produced a noticeably pure gold yellow, rather than the more orange color of 0.900 alloy. Physical tests were performed by the Smithsonian on their EHR pattern pieces. 

When did annealing cease being used in the U.S. and/or other countries -- any idea ?  I presume it is NOT being used today.

I guess the technological improvements make the surface gloss attractive without the nitric bath so that might be one reason it's not used today (plus it's costly and time-consuming).

Recent Saint Sales:  A PCGS MS-67 Saint went for $9,600 including bp.  Prices had been over $10K during Covid.  The only other Saint in MS-67 that is cheaper is the 1908 NM.

A PCGS 1910-D in MS-66 sold for $9,700 including bp.

This was surprising....an MCMVII HR AU-55 Details ANACS coin sold for $8,000, all-in.  And an AU-58 Details went for $9,600.  

A 1908 NM MS-65 CACG sold for just over $3,000.  Interesting, as Artie Johnson used to say....

Finally... a bunch of National Park Foundation Commemoratives using various ASG themes and images had multiple issues in Gem Proof sell for about 5-7% over spot gold which IMO is pretty good for the buyers.   And a 1995-W ASE PR70-DCAM sold for just over $12,300.

I wonder if there was any consideration to using the same $20 DE design for the Eagle, Half Eagle, etc. ?  

Must-read article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from the UK Telegraph.  Looks like the Chinese might be the inelastic buyer:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/16/gold-price-surge-china-warchest-geopolitical-dystopia/

On 4/15/2024 at 2:26 PM, VKurtB said:

The number of members in the ANA today is well ABOVE that in 1964. 

Any hard numbers ?

On 4/16/2024 at 11:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Hey, that chart above talks about grams per capita. What we talkin’? Gold or cocaine?

If you believe the anti-central bank spiel....and don't like/trust/understand Bitcoin or crypto....there's only one thing you want....

GOLD. 

On 4/15/2024 at 11:43 AM, cladking said:

If you define "collector" as anyone with a collection of coins that they are studying and increasing or simply has an advanced collection then there are probably at the very least 10,000,000 collectors.  About 1,000,000 of them buy supplies, services, or coins on a continuing basis.  The number is still lower than in 1964 but is approaching it.  

Any decent trade organization -- dealers, PNG, ANA, etc. -- should have hard numbers on this as I have said numerous times here.

I would NOT count someone as a collector who did the State Quarter program and then has the books collecting dust in a closet.

There are different levels of baseball, football, and sports fans.  But whether they watch EVERY game or just SOME of them, they have to have SOME interest.  They may not have season tickets or even goto a game, but they have to at least WATCH a game.  They have to have SOME knowledge of who is doing well and who is stinking up the joint.

Similarly, a coin collector to me should be someone who is at least ACTIVE in either buying or doing the things necessary to PREPARE for a future purchase:  reading a book....posting on a forum ()....attending a show....visiting an LCS....online article research...whatever.

On 4/14/2024 at 2:28 AM, powermad5000 said:

The one in this thread. As a matter of fact, all of the 1921 Morgans. Pre pandemic a 1921 (P) used to go for around $25-30 for an MS 62-63. Currently that price has doubled. And get into higher grades and sometimes it goes exponentially up.  1881 S is another one. You used to be able to get an MS 65 for about $175-$200 pre pandemic. I have seen auctions for one of these go as high as $400 in MS 65. It's across a lot of the series. And it is not just lowball Morgans. Even some of the higher dollar specimens have gone up by thousands at the gavel.  Here's another. Try this. Go to the NGC Price Guide for Morgans and find 1883 CC. Click on the MS 63 Price. There are two spikes in it happening after the pandemic began. You can click on many others and see the same trends.

So the spike UP has held ?  They didn't roundtrip in price ?  

I know for gold that the rising price of the metal since 2020 has provided support so I presume silver's rising price has done the same.

On 4/13/2024 at 7:41 PM, VKurtB said:

Being as familiar as I am with the “older” pre-Obama Swiss banking secrecy situation (both my father and his brother, my uncle, had Swiss numbered accounts - all re-onshored during the Obama administration), I believe that there will be further drip-drip-drip “new” hoards or mini-hoards coming out of Switzerland. Only Americans were affected by the gold prohibition. The Swiss banks sold U.S. gold to clients worldwide. What condition? Well, that’s the question, ain’t it? 

Even AU-condition coins from "The Fab Five" -- 1929-1932 Saints -- would be a game changer if we even got a few dozen of each.  

If QDB's bank rep was correct and you could get tens of thousands of DE's/Saints in the 1960's from Swiss banks, then there could be some more hoards of common s and/or worn coins coming over as you state.  Maybe mixed in with the occasional numismatic !! 

However, going on over 60 years since that time, the original owners of the SDBs from the 1930's have certainly passed on, and their heirs should now be getting up there in age unless it was something bequeathed to a future heir or a child (90 years since FDR's gold prohibition).

As the Fairmont Hoard shows....even if secrecy is maintained, the drip-drip-drip of any population game-changer will be noticed.

On 4/14/2024 at 8:51 AM, cladking said:

Yes, I know the sets are everywhere and you could drown in them if you offer bid.  But it's not because of large mintages it's because the coins aren't in collections.  The demand is soaring but it's still tiny relative the number that survive.  

It's almost like you are describing what happened to baseball cards, circa the mid-1960's:  cards destroyed....being thrown out....treated shabbily....and then a demand surge for the next few decades

On 4/14/2024 at 2:28 AM, powermad5000 said:

The one in this thread. As a matter of fact, all of the 1921 Morgans. Pre pandemic a 1921 (P) used to go for around $25-30 for an MS 62-63. Currently that price has doubled. And get into higher grades and sometimes it goes exponentially up. 1881 S is another one. You used to be able to get an MS 65 for about $175-$200 pre pandemic. I have seen auctions for one of these go as high as $400 in MS 65.

How much of that rise is a result in the price of silver rising -- that sets the floor for some of these coins ?

I do agree with you on the low-hanging fruit being bid up, no doubt.  The people with stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 were buying lower-priced stuff in lower grades that they could afford, i.e, large denomination bills in medium grade, silver coins as opposed to gold.

On 4/13/2024 at 9:21 AM, J P M said:

Not just Morgans, I think all the coins have gone to high, I go to the auctions all the time and people bid goofy on things. That drives the prices up, but the value is most of the time well below the hammer. 

Numbers ? 

On 4/13/2024 at 2:11 AM, powermad5000 said:

There was a craze created by the pandemic and bored people on lockdown getting into coins. They started buying things up and paying more than price guide prices especially for Morgans. It is starting to come back down a bit, but I don't think we will ever see Morgans especially go back to pre-pandemic levels.

My understanding was that we saw lots of lower-priced "trophy collectibles" like some coins, currency, etc.....all get bid up but not to crazy levels like sports cards, NFTs, etc.  I thought they had held that pricing and maybe moved higher.

Do you have some hard numbers for certain Morgans round-tripping on price ?  

On 4/13/2024 at 7:25 PM, VKurtB said:

Liberty Head hoards make Saints look tiny by comparison.  

There are some nice LH DE hoards, yes.  Numerically, I'm not sure they outnumber the Saint hoards, would be a good number crunching debate.

You have the 1983 El Salvardor/MTB Hoard which was mostly Saints and the WF NM Hoard really boosting the Saint totals.  Baltimore, Saddle Ridge, Samaszko, Champagne, Hackney, and even Fairmont are not enough to make it up, I am pretty sure.  Even the Fairmont is more noticeable for the drip-drip-drip than the huge surge in commons. 

Of course, more small hoards heavy in LH DEs can swing the numbers over time.  Have to see what is found and what comes out of collections, estates, SDBs, and maybe even self-storage units. 

On 4/13/2024 at 6:48 PM, VKurtB said:

Or the 57th Street Hoard? (I wish that was a joke, but it’s unfortunately not.) It’s an ongoing indictment of the “all flash and dash” ethos that infects virtually all gold “rediscoveries”. It is abusive marketing by ethically bankrupt con men hawking a commodity that engenders excessively emotional devotion.  Have I made myself clear yet? Perhaps they should just go the last mile and strap on the Hopalong Cassidy outfits and toy six-shooters, or a Lone Ranger mask. Goldbugs need to grow the heck up. 

There are some legitimate Saint/DE hoards over the years.  They DO have an interesting provenance and I don't mind paying up for them all else equal (the SSCA's are different since they have to be restored due to water damage).

I personally find hoards fascinating.  Some of the smaller ones owned by recluses or found overseas (i.e., the Hackney Hoard) are either so infrequent or they never got their label as I haven't seen them to my recollection.  Ditto the Samaszko Hoard. 

I wouldn't bet against the premium dissipation for the WF NM coins to be in part because folks got misled/confused on the "Wells Fargo" provenance and thought it was the origin and not where they changed hands and got stored, especially with the MS-67's.  It would have been better if Ron Gillio disclosed the origin of the hoard and maybe there was some nice South or Central American pedigree involving military juntas over the decades. 

I think the initial selling price might have been LOWER but they would have held their value longer.

On 4/13/2024 at 6:12 PM, Sandon said:

Of course, if people who don't know better can be persuaded that they are scarce or rare and to pay high prices for them, as is the case with common date Morgan and Peace dollars, anything is possible. 

Even if they are worth 50x FV, what are we talking about ?  We're not talking 3-figure or 4-figure coins even in high-MS grade.

On 4/13/2024 at 4:58 PM, cladking said:

It's a drop in the bucket for a mass market. 

But WHAT IS the market ?

Is it millions of kids like in the 1950's ?  Or is it tens of thousands ?

If the former, you may have a point.  If the latter....well, 1 single Ebay seller is able to satisy lots of the hardcore, high-MS collector, Registry-player crowd.

If you told me that a few dozen 1927-D Saints were available in plastic-wrapped mint or proof sets...then I would say that the current price needs to come down by a ton.  Similarly, with all this potential supply and net demand falling ove the decades, I don't see the potential for rising prices.

On 4/13/2024 at 11:36 AM, VKurtB said:

Due to increasing known populations? I know that Don Kagin is/was a master at bringing a huge hoard of high end gold onto the market without immediately harming prices. It was an incredible job. But for their believers, the population reports eventually catch up. 

I think it was the hype.  Same thing happened with the SSCA coins even though gold was $300 an ounce -- the premiums even for restrikes were insane.

I wonder how many buyers thought that the "Wells Fargo" moniker referred to where they were found -- not where they were stored in 1996 when the transaction took place !!   I mean, if they had done the transaction in a McDonald's they could be the McDonald's No-Motto Hoard !! 

I define coin collector as ACTIVE...either buying or LOOKING at coins...or reading, posting, learning about coins in between purchases.

I'm going to say about 5 million with maybe half of them under the age of 21.  That does NOT include bullion investors who might buy AGEs or Saints which are both coins and bullion.

On 4/13/2024 at 12:15 PM, Sandon said:

What is the factual basis of this statement?  I assume that it is nothing more than a guess.  

Even if true, that supply could swamp existing demand.

On 4/12/2024 at 9:01 PM, Sandon said:

It's just not reasonable to suggest that these coins in their usual grades will ever be "rare" in any practical sense of that word.

Then the question becomes:  does demand surge for some reason such that the price RISES which is what we normally associate with a "rare" coin ? 

For that to happen, the supply must be short relative to demand.  As some of you have said here, the MCMVII High Relief is not "rare" but on price it does trade as a rare coin even at the AU and low-60's MS levels.  That is in part from demand from people who are absolutely NOT coin collectors (they might not own any other coin).

The question then becomes:  if out of those surviving mint/proof sets ONLY (nothing from regular mintage), how many are collectors seeking them ?  It's not the 1950's or 1960's when most kids were collectors.  Add in sales by existing holders (mint/proof sets, regular mintage collectors over the decades, etc.) and the question is how many NEW collectors meet that supply and if not, how big is the demographic imbalance ?

That's how I see it, if not from a veteran or expert collector perspective, but a simple supply-demand analysis. 

On 4/12/2024 at 7:57 PM, VKurtB said:

And THAT is what makes it virtually certain that all buyers will lose money. 

Well...the premium at that time was rich and the No Motto Wells Fargo coins were more expensive than non-WF or other common Saints.  But with gold at under $400 an ounce, you got bailed out by the gold price rise since then to an extent.  Lousy returns, yes, but the coins are worth more in MS-65, but flattish in MS-66.  The MS-67 buyers got hosed.