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RYK's Journal

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The 1854-D $3 has a surprising survival percentage compared to other $3's

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RYK

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given its low mintage. Herein, I have included the survival percentage of all dates in the series, except the 1870-S, which has a survival percentage of 50% (two struck, one known survivor)!

I offered the 54-D $3 as an example of a coin with a relatively high surviving population of a low reported mintage.

Mr. Lustig countered:

However, compared to other $3 gold pieces, the 54-D probably has a lower than average survival rate.

And then RYK:

Certainly the 54-D $3 has a lower survival rate than the low mintage 1880's issues, which were saved by collectors at an extraordinary rate.

Well, I did my research and am reporting back. Using the recent Bowers/Winter reference on $3 gold pieces and their high estimated survival population, I have calculated the percent survival for each circulation strike issue (except the 70-S). As expected, for its era, the 1854-D $3 had a very high survival percentage, the highest until 1871. At this point, two things happenned: 1) The coins had become unpopular for circulation; 2) Thomas Elder and other 19th century numismatists were aggressively acquiring them.

Here's the data (date/MM issue, % survival):

1854: 5%

1854-D: 15%

1854-O: 2%

1855: 2%

1855-S: 3%

1856: 3%

1856-S: 2%

1857: 2%

1857-S: 2%

1858: 7%

1859: 5%

1860: 6%

1860-S: 2%

1861: 5%

1862: 4%

1863: 6%

1864: 8%

1865: 10%

1866: 6%

1867: 6%

1868: 10%

1869: 10%

1870: 8%

1871: 20%

1872: 12%

1873: 15%

1874: 14%

1877: 8%

1878: 18%

1879: 24%

1880: 22%

1881: 30%

1882: 21%

1883: 26%

1884: 11%

1885: 27%

1886: 20%

1887: 5%

1888: 15%

1889: 17%

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